Houston Fall RYC and RJCC

Cadet Men's Épée

Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Alliance Fencing Academy - Houston, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LIOZNYANSKY Simon	-	-	2%	14%	40%	44%
2	LEE Seungwon	-	-	5%	24%	43%	27%
3	SENNEWALD Frederick A.	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
3	XIAO Andrew	1%	9%	28%	38%	21%	3%
5	CHIN Dylan A.	-	3%	22%	40%	28%	7%
6	THOMAS Harris	-	2%	11%	33%	39%	15%
7	ROMANOV Ethan	1%	8%	31%	40%	18%	2%
8	ELHUSSEINI Dylan	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	10%
9	IMREK Elijah S.	-	-	6%	25%	43%	26%
10	SEEFELDT William Henry C.	-	-	5%	23%	45%	28%
11	MUGA Aiden	2%	14%	35%	35%	13%	1%
12	ZHU Eric	-	2%	12%	37%	40%	10%
13	XIONG Aaron	2%	14%	37%	34%	11%	1%
14	SANCHEZ Emanuel	3%	24%	40%	26%	6%	1%
15	ELHUSSEINI Kyle	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	7%
16	GONZALEZ Kian	3%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%
17	VRUBEL Eli	-	5%	25%	41%	24%	5%
18	ESKRIDGE Caleb	2%	24%	42%	25%	6%	1%
19	DECKER Hunter	27%	45%	23%	4%	-	-
20	BARG Jonathan	-	4%	25%	41%	25%	5%
21	GAITHER Christopher W.	2%	22%	41%	27%	8%	1%
22	VINOTH Aaron	27%	51%	19%	3%	-	-
23	HOWARD Paolo	41%	41%	15%	2%	-	-
24	VAN VACTER Thomas	43%	44%	11%	1%	-	-
25	GRAMMATIKOV Michael	2%	16%	39%	32%	10%	1%
26	GADDE Neel	29%	47%	21%	4%	-	-
27	OBREBSKI Kevin	75%	23%	2%	-	-	-
28	ROBLEDO Matthew	1%	9%	28%	39%	21%	3%
29	MANGAN Hunter	28%	46%	22%	4%	-	-
30	JOHNSON Allen	8%	27%	35%	23%	7%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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