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Div II Women's Foil

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHOU Catherine	-	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%
2	ASCHETTINO Aurora	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	19%
3	SHMAY Anastasia	-	-	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
3	SHA Yi Ling	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
5	RECKLING Kathleen A.	-	5%	23%	40%	27%	4%
6	OLIVEIRA Lavinia M.	-	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	13%
7	CHARALEL Jessica	-	-	2%	13%	36%	40%	8%
8	MI Anning	-	-	2%	17%	47%	33%
9	MAO Rebecca J.	-	-	-	5%	21%	42%	32%
10	PARK Caitlyn	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
11	FU Qihan	-	-	-	2%	15%	45%	38%
12	WANG Alison	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
13	UNGERER Frieda	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
14	NEWMAN Ariel	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	12%	1%
15	ZHAO Sherry	-	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	16%
16	CHEN Jasmine	-	9%	30%	37%	20%	4%
17	GANDLURI Sreehitha	-	1%	13%	36%	37%	12%
18	MEYER Claudia	-	8%	28%	38%	22%	4%
19	TRACZ Calleigh D.	-	1%	9%	31%	37%	19%	3%
20	ROHRING Anna	1%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%	-
21	GAO Zhuning	-	1%	9%	26%	38%	23%	4%
22	PARK Jacqueline	5%	23%	37%	27%	8%	1%
23	FULIGNI Isabella	-	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%
24	THIRUVENGADAM Harini	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
25	SA Milla	-	5%	20%	37%	28%	9%	1%
26	WANG Yudi	-	18%	39%	31%	11%	1%
27	PUOPOLO Mia	10%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-
28	RICHARDS Ella	-	2%	13%	31%	35%	17%	2%
29	LAWRENCE Nia	17%	43%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
30	POWLEDGE Cora	19%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
31	WEED Addison	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
32	CHENG Isa	49%	43%	8%	-	-	-	-
33	JOHNSON Maya	4%	20%	38%	28%	9%	1%	-
34	RYDMAN Grace	11%	32%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
35	WANG Siqi	12%	44%	33%	10%	1%	-
36	SHAW Guinevere L.	-	6%	27%	40%	23%	4%
37	ANDERSON Shannon	1%	8%	33%	37%	17%	4%	-
38	GREENLEAF Ella	5%	25%	39%	24%	6%	-
39	ISAAC Nazariah	2%	18%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-
40	MORIN Charlotte	12%	37%	35%	14%	3%	-	-
41	KYIJONG Tenzin	29%	53%	16%	2%	-	-	-
42	FRIEND Sophie	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-	-
43	FULLER Maybel	62%	33%	4%	-	-	-
44	SHEAHAN Brianna	27%	44%	23%	5%	1%	-	-
45	SEIFERT Madison	6%	25%	37%	24%	6%	-
46	HAQUE Isabela	95%	5%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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