Tiger Open 2022

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, October 15, 2022 at 9:00 AM

Fike Recreation Center - Clemson, SC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CLICK Aiden	-	-	-	1%	8%	34%	57%
2	MOORE Jeremy S.	-	-	-	-	1%	15%	84%
3	ZHOU Alec Q.	-	-	2%	19%	46%	33%
3	BERNARD Jack B.	-	7%	29%	41%	21%	3%	-
5	RICKMAN Ian	-	-	1%	12%	40%	40%	6%
6	RACHEL Dylan	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	14%
7	BIRT David (Dave) L.	-	-	14%	41%	36%	9%
8	GLENNON Sebastian J.	-	1%	8%	32%	47%	12%
9	LEWIS Jared	-	-	-	-	5%	30%	65%
10	LE Kevin	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	16%	1%
11	LIM Joshua	-	-	-	5%	33%	61%
12	ARNOLD Benjamin	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
13	HENDERSON Matthew	-	1%	7%	24%	39%	25%	3%
14	SPITTLE Jake	-	2%	17%	38%	33%	10%
15	CAMPBELL Joseph L.	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%	-
16	SHELLABARGER Stephen	1%	17%	41%	32%	8%	1%
17	JAAFAR Hamza	1%	15%	39%	34%	9%	1%
18	PAYNE John T.	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	16%	2%
19	KOKA Ashwin	1%	15%	37%	34%	12%	1%
20	GEISSLER Maximilian	1%	14%	39%	35%	10%	1%
21	COLLIER Baiden C.	-	4%	49%	36%	10%	1%	-
22	DECKER Carlton	-	4%	21%	38%	29%	8%	-
23	ECKARD Melody	44%	42%	13%	1%	-	-
24	MCGINNISS Andrew	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%	-
25	CUNNINGHAM Rowan	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%	-
26	CATES Georgia	32%	47%	18%	3%	-	-	-
27	RAVITA Henry	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
28	HERRICK Kerry K.	47%	40%	12%	1%	-	-
29	BANNON James	1%	9%	32%	43%	14%	2%	-
30	HWANG Sungwon	16%	40%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
31	DOTY Matthew	1%	11%	31%	35%	18%	4%
32	SIGALAS Noah	65%	30%	4%	-	-	-
33	BARTLETT Caius	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	8%	-
34	PAL Ian K.	7%	38%	39%	14%	2%	-
35	PATEL Divyam	1%	12%	34%	37%	14%	1%
36	WILKENS Patricia A.	12%	33%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
37	ALVARENGA Darby	24%	58%	18%	-	-	-
38	LEVERETT Corrina	63%	32%	5%	-	-	-	-
39	PELLI Madeleine	16%	38%	33%	11%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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