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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LANE Mitchell D.	-	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
2	MOREY Zachary D.	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	21%
3	CAMPBELL Justin	-	-	1%	8%	35%	55%
3	CHAN Arden	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	28%
5	BELL Kenneth-John J.	-	-	1%	6%	27%	45%	21%
6	FAN Yuchen	-	1%	14%	41%	35%	8%
7	GOEBEL Alexander	-	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	22%
8	ELLINGTON Keegan A.	-	-	1%	12%	43%	45%
9	FROST Talon	-	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	4%
10	MACK Jacob	2%	14%	33%	34%	14%	1%	-
11	TAI Valerie	4%	27%	40%	23%	6%	1%
12	MILLER Jonathan	31%	44%	21%	4%	-	-
13	PAVLINEC John (Jack) C.	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%
14	MONES Robert (Bob) J.	-	2%	15%	39%	35%	9%
15	WATERS Samantha M.	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
16	HAZEL Susan L.	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
17	VERGARA Jaden Reese	-	1%	5%	19%	36%	30%	9%
18	TAYLOR Wilkins	-	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	12%
19	BOCKSNICK John Robert	-	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	7%
20	RILEY Owen	1%	9%	30%	38%	18%	4%	-
21	MILLETTE Brigid A.	1%	8%	32%	45%	14%	1%
22	TAI Serena	-	1%	7%	22%	35%	26%	8%
23	CONE James	1%	9%	36%	37%	15%	2%	-
24	HUGHES Kayla	2%	16%	37%	34%	10%	1%	-
25	BOWER Ian	8%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
26	BRUCE Naomi	7%	30%	39%	19%	4%	-	-
27	CALL Mackenzie	30%	45%	21%	3%	-	-
28	FEIDLER Calvin	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
29	DEMAREE Adam	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	1%
30	MOORE Melissa M.	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	3%	-
31	NELSON Cole	-	6%	24%	41%	26%	3%
32	VANDER SCHAAF Skye	< 1%	5%	29%	44%	19%	3%	-
33	SARLO Cliff	-	-	5%	22%	40%	27%	6%
34	BOTKIN Elizabeth	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%	-	-
35	MURRAY Elijah	6%	22%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
36	SCHIPPER Bonnie	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
37	HAYWOOD Madison	11%	35%	36%	16%	3%	-
38	LABAZIEWICZ Kevin	1%	19%	39%	30%	10%	1%
39	WOEHRMAN Madeline	11%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
39	DAILEY John	2%	14%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
41	GARRETT Nathan	9%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
42	MARTIN Stella	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
43	FERRARO Nicholas	30%	50%	18%	2%	-	-	-
44	KENYON Briella	11%	43%	42%	3%	-	-
44	DOTY Matthew	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
46	SHELTON Victoria	47%	40%	12%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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