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The Margherita Guzzi Vincenti Cup

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, October 29, 2022 at 1:00 PM

Ataba Fencing Club - Hartland, WI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
2	GLASS Timothy C	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
3	KARNAS Karol	-	1%	15%	46%	38%
3	LE BIHAN Henri	-	-	4%	22%	45%	30%
5	WHEELER Mark	-	2%	12%	41%	46%
6	TAKATA Ben	-	2%	13%	36%	38%	11%
7	SOBESHKEVYCH Roman	10%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
8	SERAFYM Damian	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
9	BEACH John	-	-	2%	12%	40%	47%
10	BRADFORD Ethan	1%	14%	45%	33%	6%	< 1%
11	SPINA Joseph	-	1%	6%	24%	39%	25%	6%
12	DOROSHKEVICH Victoria	9%	32%	40%	18%	2%	-
13	BISSEN Quinn	-	4%	27%	53%	16%
14	NAGANOBORI Hiroki	-	-	1%	9%	30%	42%	18%
15	ROBBINS Christopher	-	5%	23%	40%	26%	4%
16	HONEK Kyle	3%	27%	54%	15%	1%	-
17	TYLER Syd (Sydney)	-	-	2%	14%	33%	36%	15%
18	WATTANAKIT Anda	2%	15%	37%	34%	11%	1%
19	ELTERMAN Lev	2%	13%	32%	35%	15%	2%
20	VENKATACHALAM Panav	3%	21%	43%	29%	4%
21	SWANSON Dave	-	-	1%	10%	42%	47%
22	SWENSON Nikita	1%	11%	30%	36%	19%	3%
23	RITTERBUSCH Timothy	-	2%	16%	37%	32%	12%	2%
24	CURTY Jack	-	14%	38%	35%	12%	1%
25	MILLER Lance W.	-	3%	19%	39%	31%	8%
26	WEINSTEIN Ethan	4%	17%	33%	30%	14%	2%
27	TIKHOMIROV Theodore	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	3%
28	SWENSON Alexandra	18%	44%	31%	7%	-
29	SAHA Sayan	-	6%	30%	39%	20%	4%	-
30	SORG Jacqueline	31%	44%	21%	4%	-
31	BANSAL Shaurya	3%	26%	52%	18%	1%
32	MCDOWELL Will	17%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
33	OLIVEIRA Giovanna	12%	34%	35%	15%	2%
34	KOSS Everett	15%	60%	23%	2%	-
35	KOSS Harrison	6%	25%	37%	25%	7%	1%
36	TIERNEY Luke	2%	18%	38%	31%	10%	1%
37	SHOEMAKER Oliver	17%	59%	22%	3%	-	-	-
38	ONO Melisa	35%	45%	17%	3%	-	-
39	PETERSON Clio	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
40	REESE Becky	31%	44%	21%	4%	-	-
41	SCHLIEP Anna	9%	33%	39%	17%	2%
42	HART Jenna	59%	34%	6%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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