Magic City SYC/RCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 12:00 PM

Birmingham Jefferson Convention Complex - Birmingham, AL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LI Sophia M.	-	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
2	CHO Emily (Euran)	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
3	REN Kayley	-	-	2%	14%	40%	43%
3	WANG Amabel	-	-	5%	21%	40%	30%	4%
5	MARISI Gianna	-	-	1%	12%	46%	41%
6	PARK Lina	-	-	6%	25%	43%	25%
7	PARK Zena	-	2%	15%	38%	36%	9%
8	WANG Sophia	-	6%	24%	38%	25%	6%	-
9	CHERNYKH Elina	-	5%	22%	38%	27%	7%	-
10	DENG Melissa	-	-	2%	20%	50%	28%
11	DAVIS Logan	-	-	2%	12%	39%	48%
12	WANG Joanna	-	4%	23%	41%	27%	5%
13	ALKADI Mai	1%	7%	29%	39%	21%	4%
14	TANG Melody Fujiao	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
15	HAFEZ Tahiyah	-	2%	12%	33%	39%	15%
16	GAO Anne	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	11%
17	RIEGERT-JOHNSON Simone	-	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
18	BUDKO Julia	5%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
19	ORRINGER Lottie	-	3%	21%	50%	23%	3%
20	DESERANNO Seren	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
21	BROWN Lily	1%	15%	36%	34%	13%	1%
22	TAN Isabella	4%	26%	39%	24%	6%	1%
23	WRIGHT Taliyah	-	13%	35%	36%	14%	2%
24	LIU Elinda	1%	17%	41%	31%	9%	1%
25	MUMMANENI Samyuta	1%	7%	29%	39%	21%	4%
26	ZELDIN Nadia	1%	13%	34%	36%	15%	2%
27	CHOI JULIE	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	7%
28	DINH May	6%	33%	44%	16%	2%	-
29	EVELAND Zoe	-	8%	29%	39%	21%	3%
30	ALLEYNE Taylar	1%	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-
31	CANO Sofia	29%	44%	22%	5%	-	-	-
32	DONG Emily	4%	36%	41%	17%	3%	-
33	QUINTERO Camila	4%	24%	39%	25%	7%	1%
34	SHTEPA Rada	76%	21%	2%	-	-	-
35	LIN isabella	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
36	BRIDGES Camille	28%	46%	22%	4%	-	-
37	WANG hannah	68%	29%	3%	-	-	-
38	WRIGHT Trinity	10%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
39	YOTHER Anna	48%	39%	12%	2%	-	-
39	YAU Katie	33%	47%	17%	2%	-	-
41	CHENG Emma	80%	18%	1%	-	-	-
42	KIM Alison	24%	45%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
43	REEVES June	2%	47%	43%	8%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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