LAIFC New Year Foil OPEN - Sanctioned

Senior Mixed Foil

Friday, December 30, 2022 at 10:45 AM

LAIFC - Los Angeles, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	ITKIN Nick	-	-	-	4%	96%
3	ZAPOZDAEV Igor	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
3	SADOVSKY Leor	-	7%	32%	46%	15%
5	LUH Ethan	5%	26%	44%	23%	3%
6	KELLY William	-	-	-	2%	22%	76%
7	TRAUGOT Owen	-	1%	15%	59%	25%
8	YU Eric W	-	4%	24%	50%	22%
9	LOUIE Bryce	-	-	1%	18%	81%
10	NAYGAS lawrence	-	8%	32%	43%	17%
11	LYU Victor	-	1%	11%	37%	45%	6%
12	MUSHER Benjamin	7%	33%	46%	14%	-
13	FOGELSON Frederick	-	6%	57%	34%	2%
14	OURSLER Jack	-	2%	20%	47%	31%
16	CANLAS Nathan Edward	1%	31%	46%	20%	2%
17	FEDONCHIK Henry	-	3%	24%	46%	23%	3%
18	TRAUGOT Braden	1%	19%	43%	31%	7%
19	VAZQUEZ Zander	-	-	4%	24%	48%	23%
20	XU Jia Bao	2%	16%	44%	38%	-
21	SIU Aiden	-	-	7%	39%	53%
22	LOCKE Savannah	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
23	GODZHIK Zachary	1%	13%	38%	38%	9%
24	LE Jacob	1%	19%	43%	30%	6%	-
25	KLOTZ Isaiah	16%	50%	30%	5%	-
26	SCHIENEMAN Valentine	53%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
27	ZHEREBTSOV Kirill	2%	40%	48%	8%	-
28	MARTIN IV Elmer Dean	-	10%	35%	40%	13%	1%
29	MCCOSH Murray	4%	37%	42%	16%	2%	-
30	PARK Rowan	14%	40%	34%	11%	1%
31	WADHWANI Liana	9%	31%	37%	19%	3%
32	YORK Lucas	46%	52%	2%	-	-
33	KIM Brandon	-	2%	33%	58%	8%
34	PADILLA Jacob	49%	47%	4%	-	-
35	PARK Sky	44%	52%	5%	-	-
36	KUZMAK Michael	1%	11%	41%	35%	11%	1%
38	DANIELYANTS Gabriela	77%	21%	2%	-	-
39	WASHINGTON Romeo	< 1%	20%	43%	31%	7%
40	MEDVIDOVIC Pavle	2%	45%	46%	7%	-
41	GOLDADE Luke	12%	54%	30%	5%	-
42	LIU Aaron Zixian	48%	48%	3%	-	-
43	COOK Ryan	14%	48%	30%	7%	1%	-
44	MISTRETTA Alex	33%	44%	20%	3%	-
45	NA Rongtian	76%	22%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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