The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

South Coast Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJC

Junior Men's Foil

Monday, January 16, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Pasadena Convention Center - Visitors Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 NAYGAS LAWRENCE I. - - - 1% 10% 38% 51%
2 JAIN Aditya - - - - 4% 28% 68%
3 GOLDADE Luke A. - 1% 8% 31% 42% 18%
3 LE Jacob W. - - - 3% 18% 45% 33%
5 ZHANG Aaron - - - 6% 26% 46% 22%
6 MARTIN IV Elmer D. - - - 3% 17% 42% 37%
7 SADOVSKY Leor B. - - - - 4% 28% 67%
8 RASMUSSEN Sage - 3% 15% 34% 34% 13% 1%
9 CANLAS Nathan - - - 2% 13% 40% 44%
10 LEUNG Chu Ming Aiden - 1% 7% 22% 35% 27% 8%
11 MORROW Brenden - 1% 7% 23% 36% 26% 7%
12 MA Andrew - - 2% 15% 43% 40%
13 ANDERSON Jacob - 2% 11% 28% 36% 20% 3%
14 LI Jett - 1% 8% 29% 40% 19% 3%
15 PARK Ryan - 5% 22% 37% 27% 8% 1%
16 BLAM Matthew 22% 40% 28% 9% 1% - -
17 RENTERIA Emiliano - 2% 11% 29% 36% 19% 3%
18 NGUYEN Liam - 1% 9% 26% 37% 22% 4%
19 ZHOU Hao Kai (Kevin) - 1% 8% 27% 38% 22% 4%
20 LI Avery Peihong - - 2% 16% 40% 36% 5%
21 BARTSCH Henry 15% 38% 32% 12% 2% - -
22 OH Jaden - 2% 11% 28% 37% 20% 2%
23 KIM Derek A. - - 4% 23% 45% 28%
24 PONS Diego - 3% 14% 32% 34% 15% 2%
25 LE Jacob H. - 5% 21% 40% 27% 6% 1%
26 DINSAY Kristjan - - 4% 16% 34% 33% 12%
27 RUBIN Max - 3% 20% 42% 28% 6% -
28 ZHANG Matthew 1% 10% 27% 35% 21% 5% -
29 SCHIENEMAN Valentine 12% 56% 27% 5% - -
30 MCCOSH Evin M. - 1% 9% 32% 43% 16%
31 SMITH Grant D. - 7% 35% 40% 16% 2%
32 LLIDO Soren - 5% 19% 33% 29% 12% 2%
33 FINNEY Lorenz - 3% 22% 42% 27% 6%
34 PARK Steve (Sangmin) 2% 14% 35% 33% 13% 2% -
35 LAM Nicolas 2% 19% 43% 28% 7% 1%
35 GREENEBAUM Oliver 10% 42% 36% 11% 1% -
37 PARK Sky - 5% 26% 42% 23% 4%
38 DERRICK Blake - - 4% 19% 38% 30% 8%
39 BAE Eugene 4% 34% 42% 17% 3% - -
40 GONZALEZ Matthew 3% 16% 33% 31% 14% 3% -
41 MA Bryant - 1% 7% 27% 42% 21% 2%
42 BORG Matthew 15% 37% 32% 13% 3% - -
43 PINCHENG Yao 4% 21% 36% 27% 10% 2% -
44 ADAMS Cedric 1% 9% 26% 35% 22% 6% 1%
45 NAVARRO Kato 1% 9% 26% 35% 22% 6% 1%
46 DALVA Michael 2% 26% 44% 23% 5% - -
47 KRAUSE Colin 8% 31% 37% 19% 4% - -
48 TONKOVICH Ryan 2% 13% 32% 34% 16% 3% -
49 MONTGOMERY Georgie 15% 39% 34% 11% 1% - -
50 SEIGEL Duncan 22% 43% 28% 7% 1% - -
51 YORK Lucas 14% 40% 33% 11% 2% - -
52 FLANAGAN Miles 28% 42% 23% 6% 1% - -
53 DAYAL Vedant 2% 12% 30% 35% 18% 4% -
54 CHEN Brian 9% 31% 36% 19% 5% 1% -
55 KUO Jayden 75% 24% 2% - - -
56 KALAMAS Nikolas 41% 42% 15% 2% - - -
57 SHORTER David Alexander 58% 35% 7% 1% - -
58 ELVANDER Ethan 20% 40% 29% 10% 2% - -
58 BORDIER Timeo 18% 39% 30% 11% 2% - -
60 YUAN Jonathan 74% 24% 2% - - - -
61 DULAI Angad 13% 38% 36% 12% 2% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.