South Coast Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Monday, January 16, 2023 at 2:30 PM

Pasadena Convention Center - Visitors Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Zhengyang (Allen)	-	-	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
2	LEE Royce	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
3	KIM Alexander	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
3	MULCAHY Sebastian	-	-	5%	20%	39%	30%	6%
5	RONG Gordon	-	1%	4%	17%	34%	33%	11%
6	WONG Baron	-	-	5%	27%	54%	14%
7	WU Johnny y.	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	2%
8	RODOCANACHI Hector	-	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
9	CHAN JR Jason	-	3%	16%	37%	32%	11%	1%
10	WOO Lucas	8%	29%	36%	21%	5%	-
11	NGUYEN Ethan	8%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
12	KIM Remington	4%	19%	33%	28%	12%	2%	-
13	MAXU Tiger	-	5%	25%	43%	23%	4%
14	BERTEL Florian	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
15	CHEN Aiden	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
16	DU Evan	7%	29%	40%	20%	5%	-	-
17	LIANG Donny	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
18	ZHOU Shawn	-	-	2%	11%	38%	50%
19	MORIN-JIANG Jake	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
20	RONG Marcus	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-
21	XUE Michael	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
22	WU Nathan	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	4%
23	GADHVI Darius	13%	39%	34%	11%	2%	-	-
24	SCHWARTZMAN Ethan	7%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
25	WANG Lucas	7%	32%	42%	17%	2%	-
26	FU Adrian	3%	16%	32%	32%	15%	2%
27	MOSLEY Wally	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
28	MA Houhin	9%	37%	38%	14%	2%	-
29	AUSTIN Atlas	-	2%	12%	30%	37%	19%
30	SHIH Derek	18%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
31	ENG Kyler	-	1%	7%	27%	40%	22%	3%
32	FERRIERE Theo	33%	44%	20%	4%	-	-	-
33	WOOLCOCK Cash	12%	32%	33%	17%	5%	1%	-
34	WONG Alexander	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
35	SHOURIE Neel	1%	10%	29%	37%	19%	3%
36	SHOURIE Seth	19%	39%	30%	10%	1%	-
37	FU Nolan	1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	7%	1%
38	PISCITELLO Aleksandr	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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