Duel of the East Coast ROC/RJCC

Veteran Men's Épée

Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 12:00 PM

Greater Philadelphia Expo Center - Oaks, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BARTLETT Jonathan R.	-	1%	9%	29%	42%	19%
2	ZUCKER Noah L.	-	-	-	6%	33%	61%
3	GAUVEY Ken C.	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%
3	GREENBAUM Isaac	-	-	3%	18%	45%	34%
5	BARREIRO Darren	-	-	2%	17%	45%	35%
6	PHO Eric	-	-	-	5%	23%	43%	28%
7	COETZEE Frans M.	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
8	ANDREI Yakimenko	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
9	ZHANG Sen	5%	32%	43%	17%	2%	< 1%
10	BEN-YAACOV Shai D.	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	5%
11	LIOU Solomon	-	5%	24%	43%	24%	3%
12	KORSCHUN Daniel	-	1%	6%	27%	45%	21%
13	BUSH Thomas	-	-	2%	12%	33%	39%	14%
14	SAWASDIKOSOL Sansana	4%	26%	40%	24%	6%	-
15	GAMBINO Robert A.	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	12%
16	MISCIAGNA Martin A.	13%	39%	34%	13%	2%	-
17	RICH celester	2%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%
18	NEMAZIE David A.	1%	9%	31%	40%	17%	2%
19	HUGHES Michael D.	-	-	6%	29%	45%	19%
20	BOYKO Frank C.	7%	27%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
21	FROLICH Grant	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
22	LUO Aaron	3%	18%	38%	31%	10%	1%
23	CHU Brandon A.	6%	38%	41%	13%	2%	-
24	MILES Ronald D.	8%	40%	39%	12%	1%	-
24	SIEDOW Jeffrey	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-
26	PIERRO Roger	5%	27%	43%	21%	4%	-
27	ROUSE Joseph (Joe) T.	1%	7%	24%	38%	24%	6%	1%
28	RIFKIND Neil	10%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
29	WHITELOCK James R.	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-
30	MARKOWITZ William M.	3%	22%	41%	28%	7%	-
31	O'DOWD Andrew J.	-	1%	12%	38%	40%	9%
32	HEKMAT Sina R.	-	2%	17%	44%	30%	6%
33	KANE Tim	1%	15%	37%	34%	11%	1%
34	WALTING Paul J.	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-
35	GAO "George" Xiaojiang	28%	43%	23%	5%	1%	-	-
36	LENAR David	61%	32%	6%	-	-	-
37	O'REILLY Robert	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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