Silicon Valley RYC/RCC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 8:00 AM

NorCal Courts - Martinez, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WU Alber Y.	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
2	MORROW Brenden	-	-	-	-	7%	36%	57%
3	RASMUSSEN Sage	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
3	PARK Rion	-	-	-	3%	16%	43%	38%
5	CORTRIGHT Skipper	-	-	-	1%	8%	39%	53%
6	CHANG Jonathan	-	-	2%	12%	33%	40%	14%
7	KIM Daniel Y.	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
8	RAUTUREAU Hugo	-	-	1%	7%	31%	46%	15%
9	RAUTUREAU Arthur	-	-	1%	12%	40%	39%	8%
10	SISINNI Leonardo	-	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
11	ZHOU Ryan	-	1%	9%	28%	38%	21%	3%
12	ZHANG Jacob	-	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	7%
13	WONG Evan	-	-	4%	16%	35%	33%	12%
14	NGAI Julian	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
15	TSAY Jordan R.	-	-	4%	16%	35%	33%	12%
16	AGRAWAL Niki	-	-	6%	30%	43%	19%	2%
17	SAH Steven	-	1%	6%	22%	40%	27%	5%
18	LIU William	-	-	1%	14%	42%	36%	7%
19	RODRIGUEZ Tyler	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
19	DUNLAP Ezra	1%	8%	25%	36%	23%	6%	1%
21	ZHONG Maxwell	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
22	ZHANG Graham	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
23	HE Bourne	1%	14%	47%	31%	6%	-	-
24	YUE Jackson	3%	16%	34%	31%	13%	3%	-
25	CHAN Joseph	-	1%	5%	21%	41%	28%	4%
26	LI Richard	-	3%	17%	41%	31%	8%	-
27	PARK William	-	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
28	FANG Jaden	-	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
29	WONG Braxton	1%	6%	21%	35%	27%	9%	1%
30	KULKARNI Karan	15%	40%	34%	10%	1%	-	-
31	DULAI Agam	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
32	UPENDER West	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
33	PETROV Mikhail	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-	-
34	KIM Charlie	2%	14%	34%	33%	14%	3%	-
35	ZHANG Jayden	-	4%	26%	46%	21%	3%	-
36	SCHILLER Finnegan	28%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
37	DULAI Angad	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%	-
38	ZHANG Andrew	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	1%	-
39	TOYOFUKU Ethan	14%	35%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
40	VAQUILAR Felix L.	10%	38%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
41	PORPORA Oliver	5%	27%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-
42	LIANG Ethan	22%	44%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
43	ZHU Randy	47%	44%	9%	1%	-	-	-
44	ZHANG Max	7%	27%	37%	23%	6%	1%	-
45	REID Wesley	30%	45%	21%	4%	-	-	-
45	WANG Brian Z.	16%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
47	WEI Winston	28%	53%	17%	2%	-	-	-
48	KREISHER Ilan	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-	-
49	BANUELOS Dario	34%	46%	18%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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