DCFC Youth Challenge #2

Y-14 Mixed Épée

Sunday, December 15, 2019 at 1:30 PM

DC Fencers Club - Silver Spring, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CAO Brad	-	-	2%	14%	40%	44%
2	CAO Albert	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	27%	7%
3	STANCILL Hunter G.	3%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
3	SU Caleb	-	-	1%	8%	31%	42%	18%
5	WOZNIAK Fryderyk	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
6	CHAMBLISS Logan C.	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%
7	CHOI Marcus	-	8%	32%	41%	17%	2%
8	METZLER Calder	-	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
9	FU Ethan	4%	23%	38%	27%	8%	1%
10	ZHAO Ivy	-	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%
11	LEA Daniel	-	3%	14%	29%	32%	17%	4%
12	JONES Tyler	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
13	HOFF Ryan	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	3%
14	ROSE Nicholas E.	2%	13%	35%	37%	12%	1%
15	LE BORGNE Clea	18%	39%	31%	10%	1%	-
16	WAGNER Ian	1%	9%	24%	33%	24%	9%	1%
17	DAN Rex	-	6%	25%	40%	24%	5%
18	SINFUEGO Adrian	2%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
19	LIU Nicole	1%	7%	22%	33%	25%	10%	2%
20	NICELY William B.	1%	6%	20%	32%	28%	12%	2%
21	SHIN Jihyo	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
22	BHATTACHARYYA Rohan	12%	31%	33%	18%	5%	1%	-
23	PENHOET Adrien E.	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
24	YEUNG Yun	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
25	MIMIKAKIS Elia	1%	8%	30%	41%	19%	1%
26	MAGALSKI Mary	7%	56%	31%	5%	-	-
26	YAN Claire	19%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-
28	REICHBACH francesca	2%	17%	38%	31%	11%	1%
29	CHOPRA-KHAN Jonah	5%	26%	40%	23%	6%	-
30	ZHANG Andy	4%	23%	40%	25%	7%	1%	-
31	KORFONTA Jolie	2%	11%	27%	33%	20%	6%	1%
32	NAGY Akos R.	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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