George Mason University Patriot Open 2023

Div III Mixed Épée

Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 12:30 PM

George Mason Recreational Athletics Complex (RAC) - Fairfax, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WALLACE George	-	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
2	WHITE Myles	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	32%
3	ARMSTRONG Gary	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	13%	1%
3	KIM Joshua	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%
5	FORAIDA Khalid	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	13%
6	PENNER Kyle D.	-	-	1%	8%	29%	43%	18%
7	CHHU Allen	1%	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
8	CHOO Christopher Y.	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
9	LEE Benjamin	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%	-
10	TANG Justin	1%	7%	25%	39%	24%	4%
11	SMITH IV Edward (Ted) A.	-	-	3%	12%	30%	37%	17%
12	CHUNG Henry	-	-	1%	8%	35%	55%
13	NIEMI Otto	-	4%	22%	41%	28%	6%
14	EVANS George	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
15	BARTLETT Lauren	2%	40%	41%	15%	2%	-
16	KANG Junwoo	3%	22%	39%	27%	8%	1%	-
18	GREEAR Colin	1%	10%	36%	43%	10%	1%
19	BAIRD Matthew	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	33%
20	DIAZ Brenna	1%	28%	42%	23%	5%	-
21	MEGGERS Samuel	-	5%	30%	42%	20%	3%
22	MCDOWELL Finn	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
23	HECHT Chance	-	5%	18%	33%	30%	12%	2%
24	ROGERS Mark	-	4%	23%	45%	25%	3%
25	KULKARNI Mihir	5%	24%	36%	25%	9%	1%	-
26	LUNDEN Espen	17%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
27	VADDE Pranav	3%	20%	41%	28%	8%	1%
28	LAZURAN Daniel	4%	34%	41%	18%	3%	-
29	PARLETT Jennifer	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
30	WACK Logan	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-	-
31	SAMPAIO Beatriz	66%	29%	5%	-	-	-
32	WALLS Annie	7%	29%	37%	21%	6%	1%	-
33	MARTIN Audrey	65%	30%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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