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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DESERANNO Leander	-	-	-	1%	10%	36%	53%
2	GE Felix Fei	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	19%
3	CZARNECKI Thomas	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%
3	JAZWINSKI Ryan	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
5	HUYNH Matthew	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
6	TAN Charlie	-	1%	7%	25%	39%	25%	4%
7	KUANG Cyrus	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%
8	LI Lucas	-	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	17%
9	ZHUANG Disheng	-	3%	13%	29%	33%	19%	4%
10	LU Hansen	-	1%	6%	20%	35%	29%	9%
11	CORAN Roland	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	12%	1%
12	ALVAREZ Francisco Janusz	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
13	WU Wallace	-	3%	16%	32%	32%	14%	2%
14	RAU Shogun	-	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	4%
15	PAN Howard Haoran	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
16	SUAREZ Lucas	-	2%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
17	WENGER Rowan	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
18	WANG Caleb	-	6%	23%	37%	25%	7%	1%
19	DEMPSEY Julian	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
20	JIN Xuechong Daniel	-	4%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
20	WILSON Jacob	6%	25%	37%	24%	8%	1%	-
22	SLAIN Owen	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
23	KOSCIK-AQUINO Nicholas	7%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
24	SU Aiden	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
25	DIFRANK Avery	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
26	DANTON Ryan	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	18%
27	JIAO Daniel	-	1%	5%	18%	35%	33%	9%
28	PAN Ethan	-	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
29	PAYNE Lynas	2%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
30	HOARE Gabriel	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
31	PUTHOFF Henry	19%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
32	MAZAHERI John	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
33	ZHENG Lerui	11%	34%	35%	16%	4%	-
34	KIM Joshua Yeohwi	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
35	JIN Xueyuan George	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	-
36	WILSON Robert	-	5%	19%	35%	29%	10%	1%
37	PALMER-KLEIN Justin	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
38	BROWN Rhys	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-
39	HARDWICK Alex	32%	42%	20%	5%	1%	-	-
39	RITTER Nathan D.	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-	-
41	XU Jason	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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