National Championships & July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Vet-50 Men's Foil

Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 10:00 AM

Phoenix Convention Center - Phoenix, AZ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WYSZYNSKI Marek B.	-	-	-	-	11%	89%
2	FOELLMER Oliver K.	-	-	-	3%	29%	68%
3	SUAREZ Rafael A.	-	-	-	-	1%	13%	86%
3	KOEHN Ted	-	-	1%	16%	75%	8%
5	OLIVARES Frets G.	-	-	-	6%	36%	58%
6	ANDERSON Nathan T.	-	-	-	-	7%	35%	58%
7	LEE Tobias (Toby) T.	-	-	4%	29%	51%	16%
8	PIMOUTKINE Roustam R.	-	-	-	2%	30%	69%
9	CHO Michael	-	-	1%	12%	65%	22%
10	GEARHART Andrew (Andy) R.	-	1%	18%	53%	26%	2%
11	POWERS Douglas A.	-	1%	7%	31%	42%	17%	2%
12	YANG David	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	< 1%	-
13	KISSINGFORD John F.	-	-	1%	10%	36%	49%	3%
14	POPOKH Leo	-	-	2%	27%	56%	15%
15	SUAREZ Rolando	1%	13%	40%	41%	4%	-
16	PHILLIPS Jasper	-	2%	12%	37%	36%	12%	1%
17	WU Clarence C.	-	2%	18%	49%	27%	3%
18	KRYLTSOV Greg	3%	21%	45%	29%	2%	-
19	VALENTINE Iain	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	3%	-
20	BORG Daniel	32%	46%	19%	3%	-	-	-
21	GREENLEAF John	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	3%	-
22	HERNANDEZ Marc A.	-	-	1%	12%	36%	41%	10%
23	BERKE Daniel (Dan) L.	1%	18%	59%	21%	1%	-
24	RUSANOV Oleg	4%	26%	47%	21%	1%	-
25	PAPP Mike	6%	45%	39%	9%	1%	-
26	JEFFCOAT Timothy	19%	45%	29%	6%	-	-
27	TOWSTER Robert	7%	32%	44%	16%	2%	-	-
28	WEIL Brent	2%	18%	45%	32%	3%	-
29	NEWELL Tim	39%	45%	14%	1%	-	-
30	BERGER Jamie	27%	46%	23%	4%	-	-
31	MAHNKEN Thomas G.	3%	31%	50%	14%	1%	-
32	THOGERSEN Eric J.	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
33	ALLAN Peter L.	30%	48%	20%	2%	-	-
34	CHAO Pierre	13%	63%	22%	2%	-	-
35	ORNELAS Polo	77%	22%	2%	-	-	-
36	WEMPLE Charles	76%	23%	1%	-	-	-
37	O'CONNOR Ryan (Ryan O'Connor) D.	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%	-
37	ZAIDI Sohail	23%	45%	26%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.