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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DESHMUKH Arjun	-	-	-	-	2%	24%	74%
2	LU Kevin	-	2%	13%	33%	38%	14%
3	QIAN Jason H.	-	-	-	3%	17%	44%	36%
3	MAO Lucas	-	-	2%	19%	50%	29%
5	MEJIA MATTHEW D.	-	-	-	1%	6%	31%	62%
6	XU Andy P.	-	-	-	6%	30%	53%	11%
7	DERRICK Blake	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
8	KIM Brian	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	8%
9	WU Alber Y.	-	-	1%	14%	46%	38%
10	CHOI Benjamin	2%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%
11	LI Richard	1%	11%	30%	36%	19%	3%	-
12	LIU Michael H.	-	-	1%	7%	29%	44%	19%
13	ZHAO Adam	-	1%	9%	30%	39%	18%	3%
14	BOESKIN Nolan	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
15	FOURNET-FAYARD Aldric	4%	25%	39%	25%	7%	1%
16	BIELER Mason	-	7%	28%	39%	21%	4%	-
17	DOELL Ethan	-	5%	22%	38%	27%	7%
18	RODRIGUEZ Tyler	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	3%
19	ANDRIC Borna	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
20	RAJ Jay	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
21	WANDJI Noah	-	5%	23%	41%	26%	5%	-
22	YOON junhyeok	1%	7%	24%	35%	25%	7%	-
23	YANG Ethan J.	1%	10%	44%	36%	8%	1%
24	CHEN Leetyan	-	4%	29%	46%	18%	2%
25	CHUANG Oscar	-	3%	17%	39%	34%	7%	-
26	ONG Nicholas	2%	27%	42%	23%	5%	-	-
27	ELKOUSY Zain al Din	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%	1%
28	BARRETT Austin	1%	20%	41%	29%	8%	1%	-
29	CHEN Kelton	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
30	DHOKTE Neev	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-
31	CLARK Benjamin	22%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-
32	CHENG Mason	47%	44%	8%	1%	-	-
33	TANG Alexander L.	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
34	JOHNSON Soren	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
35	PARKER Isaiah	3%	22%	39%	27%	8%	1%
36	MCKEE Calvin	24%	45%	25%	5%	-	-	-
37	WARMERDAM Joseph	-	1%	9%	30%	39%	18%	2%
38	KUANG Aaron	19%	39%	30%	10%	2%	-
39	DAI Christopher	4%	23%	41%	25%	6%	-	-
40	FRASER Rhys	37%	41%	18%	4%	-	-	-
41	SANCHEZ Prince	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-
42	CHAN Joseph	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
43	GOVSHTEYN Avi	80%	19%	2%	-	-	-	-
43	NUCKLES Caden	25%	45%	25%	5%	-	-	-
45	TEH Tang-Ngu	32%	54%	13%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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