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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DAVOODIAN Christopher	-	-	-	-	1%	20%	79%
2	WANG Joey	-	-	4%	18%	42%	36%
3	ERLIKHMAN Adrian	-	-	1%	5%	21%	41%	32%
3	LIU Yueri	-	-	3%	20%	44%	32%
5	HSU Joshua	1%	7%	25%	37%	25%	6%
6	LI Yunji (Rain)	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%
7	WONG Baron	-	3%	16%	38%	36%	7%
8	KIM Alexander	2%	15%	35%	34%	14%	2%
9	LEE Royce	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	9%
10	SHEN Jiayi	3%	15%	32%	31%	15%	4%	-
11	SHIN Ryan	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
12	MULCAHY Sebastian	-	-	1%	11%	36%	46%	7%
13	CLAES Thomas	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
14	TUSANTOSO McKenzie	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	28%
15	LI Zerong	-	3%	17%	35%	33%	11%
16	FU Adrian	3%	15%	31%	31%	15%	4%	-
17	DONAHUE Lake	-	-	1%	7%	35%	58%
18	FU Nolan	-	5%	24%	42%	24%	4%
19	RAHMAN Zayd	1%	8%	28%	38%	22%	4%	-
20	RONG Gordon	-	3%	12%	28%	34%	19%	4%
21	MANA Arnav	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
22	DENG haoyu	-	1%	9%	30%	42%	17%
23	WU Johnny y.	2%	14%	34%	36%	14%	1%
24	MORIN-JIANG Jake	1%	7%	26%	38%	24%	5%
25	AUYEUNG Aedan Ho lam	2%	14%	34%	33%	15%	2%
26	WU Nathan	5%	26%	38%	24%	6%	1%
27	RAHMAN Ali	-	3%	12%	28%	34%	19%	4%
28	WANG Lucas	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
29	RODOCANACHI Hector	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
30	PISCITELLO Aleksandr	46%	40%	12%	2%	-	-
31	XUE Michael	-	5%	23%	40%	26%	5%	-
32	WOO Lucas	5%	26%	38%	24%	7%	1%
33	MA Ciel	30%	43%	22%	5%	1%	-
34	KIM Remington	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%
35	RONG Marcus	6%	26%	39%	23%	5%	-
36	HOCHSTEIN Tristan	15%	41%	32%	11%	1%	-	-
37	KURUGANTI Vivaan	36%	43%	17%	3%	-	-	-
38	SCHWARTZMAN Ethan	22%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
39	MENG Haoyi	6%	27%	37%	23%	7%	1%
40	MANA Sameer	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
41	LIU Xuyao	7%	33%	40%	17%	3%	-
42	BANGAYAN Anthony	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%
43	GADHVI Darius	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
44	BERTEL Florian	15%	35%	32%	15%	4%	-	-
45	MA Ryan	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%	-
46	CHEN Aiden	1%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%	-
47	MAXU Tiger	2%	16%	35%	33%	13%	2%
48	RIVERA-BREMNER Aiden	6%	30%	40%	20%	4%	-
49	GIRAULT Juan Pablo	3%	35%	42%	17%	2%	-
50	LIN Daniel	53%	36%	9%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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