Duel of the East Coast VET ROC / RJCC / RYC & Y8

Junior Women's Saber

Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Greater Philadelphia Expo Center - Oaks, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Yifei	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
2	GUVEN Coco	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
3	DAMBAL Sasha	1%	8%	28%	37%	22%	4%
3	FAN Grace	-	-	3%	15%	37%	36%	9%
5	GUGALA Hanna	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
6	ANTHONY Alexia B.	-	-	-	2%	13%	40%	46%
7	HU Anna	-	4%	22%	40%	28%	7%
8	SCOTT Eve	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
9	SPEARS Mya B	-	2%	10%	31%	40%	17%
10	SO Catelyn	-	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
10	JOHNSON Lydia	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
12	MANKOVA Varvara	-	-	4%	21%	40%	29%	5%
13	FLATT Sophia	1%	10%	30%	38%	18%	3%
14	GOMERMAN Sophia	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	22%
15	KANDADAI Lara	-	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	3%
16	BUSH Bethany	-	2%	11%	30%	37%	18%	2%
17	MERCHANT Aishwarya	-	1%	6%	23%	39%	28%	4%
18	CHI Claire	-	3%	20%	40%	29%	8%	1%
19	MESSICK Maya	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%	-
20	UEMOTO Lynn	2%	12%	31%	34%	17%	3%	-
21	LOO Kaitlyn	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	19%
22	LEOU Korina	-	6%	26%	39%	23%	5%
23	GENTILE Vittoria	16%	38%	32%	11%	2%	-
24	LAGOON Miriam	12%	39%	34%	13%	2%	-
25	TA-ZHOU Emma	1%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
26	KRASOWITZ Lucy	1%	10%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
27	MCGRAW Sadie	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%	1%
28	CROOKS Riley	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	4%
29	BERRIOS Catalina	1%	9%	27%	35%	22%	5%	-
30	RANJAN Diya	-	7%	33%	39%	18%	3%	-
31	DAI Olivia	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	7%
32	BAINS Nandini	9%	30%	37%	19%	4%	-
33	NAYAK Esha	1%	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%
34	VISWANATHAN Nishka	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
35	VATS Ishita	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-	-
36	NAYAK Antara	18%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
37	MAROSFOI Virag	27%	43%	23%	5%	1%	-
38	MACKAY Katherine	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
39	SHMULER Fiona	12%	50%	31%	7%	1%	-
40	GETZONI Mary	51%	40%	8%	1%	-	-	-
41	LIM Alexa J.	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
42	BARNES Sarah	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
43	MANGAT Alexis	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-
44	SUH Gah Ohn Anna	22%	53%	22%	4%	-	-	-
44	YAO Annabelle	18%	41%	30%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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