Competitive Class Saturday Game

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 9:00 AM

Sunnyvale, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	CHIRASHNYA Daniel	-	5%	23%	43%	28%
2	KIM Benjamin	-	1%	8%	30%	41%	20%
3	CHIRASHNYA Adam	1%	19%	42%	31%	7%
3	MACHULSKY Leehi	-	-	-	3%	23%	74%
5	WATT Darren	-	1%	9%	41%	49%
6	BERG Mads Peter	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
7	CASTELLY Luke	1%	11%	32%	40%	16%
8	BIDA Sergey	-	-	25%	50%	25%
9	SINHA Zaan	-	3%	23%	52%	22%
10	HIGGINS Calvin	6%	29%	39%	22%	5%	-
11	SARKAR Agniv	-	5%	42%	52%	1%
12	MARTYNOVA Diana	3%	18%	40%	34%	6%	-
13	CLAES Lucas	42%	46%	11%	1%	-
14	SARKAR Anish	-	5%	34%	45%	16%
15	WONG Ethan	3%	24%	40%	26%	7%	-
16	CAMAMA Tessa	-	6%	25%	39%	25%	5%
17	CHIRASHNYA Mika	1%	9%	27%	37%	21%	4%
18	LIU Noah	14%	38%	34%	12%	1%
19	MOLLINIER Anais	3%	21%	40%	29%	7%
20	COHEN Shaina	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
21	JAIN Samyak	-	2%	13%	39%	41%	5%
22	ANDERSON Kai	1%	26%	53%	19%	2%
23	SIM Ian	6%	49%	38%	7%	-
24	LI Ethan	27%	46%	23%	4%	-
25	CHUNG Penelope	75%	22%	2%	-	-
26	LAI Amanda	27%	55%	16%	1%	-
27	DALEY Keira	23%	44%	26%	6%	-	-
28	PRAKASH Hari	5%	23%	37%	27%	8%	1%
29	BURICEA Ada	10%	34%	40%	16%	-
30	DAYAL Saahira	11%	34%	36%	16%	2%	-
31	XU Celina	19%	42%	30%	8%	1%
32	BLANCO Ariia	2%	28%	44%	22%	4%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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