The 9-State Fencing Cup RYC/RCC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 1:30 PM

Chelsea Piers - Stamford, CT - Stamford, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Jayden	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
2	KIM Henry	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	40%
3	LUO Alexander	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
3	WANG-SONG Evan	-	1%	5%	22%	43%	30%
5	SONG Aidan	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%
6	CAFASSO Alexander	-	1%	12%	35%	38%	13%
7	HAN Keyi	-	1%	9%	27%	38%	21%	3%
8	ZHAI Junqi	-	-	1%	11%	38%	50%
9	SINGLETON Aman	-	-	-	1%	6%	33%	60%
10	SHAPIRO Samuel	1%	7%	27%	40%	23%	3%
11	NOOL Alexander	-	4%	22%	45%	26%	3%
12	BEYER Timothy	1%	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
13	ZHANG Shuhao	22%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
14	GIORDANO Zach	-	6%	27%	41%	23%	4%
15	NOOL Aaron	-	5%	19%	34%	30%	11%	1%
16	FOGEL Jake	7%	26%	38%	23%	6%	-
17	TOPRANI Valmik	-	1%	9%	25%	36%	24%	5%
18	WHITE Jackson	1%	11%	34%	37%	15%	2%
19	BRESLAV Asher	1%	11%	33%	37%	16%	2%
20	CHEN Daniel	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	7%
21	SHEYDIN Barry	-	1%	5%	21%	39%	29%	5%
22	WILLIAMS Gavin	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%	-
23	CAVALLARO Sebastian	1%	11%	30%	35%	19%	4%	-
24	ZINCHUK Yuri	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%
25	YU David	8%	27%	35%	23%	7%	1%
26	YOON Jonathan	7%	31%	39%	19%	4%	-
27	CHO Adrian	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-
28	KATS Brandon	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%
29	TANG Milo	1%	7%	23%	34%	26%	9%	1%
30	SMITH Theo	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%	1%
31	MCGANN Grant	7%	28%	37%	22%	5%	-
32	SHI Evan	10%	44%	34%	10%	1%	-
33	RICHARDSON Matthew	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
34	WANG Marcus	9%	31%	36%	19%	5%	-	-
35	ROFINO Samuel	9%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%	-
36	MCGINLEY Felix	1%	12%	32%	36%	17%	2%
37	ARMSTRONG Payson	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
38	JIN Derek	59%	34%	6%	-	-	-
39	PARKER Wilson	-	6%	26%	41%	24%	4%
40	YU George	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
41	GENG Michael	6%	24%	36%	25%	9%	1%	-
42	MUELLER Travis	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-	-
43	LEE Ryan	13%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
44	SANTANA Sebastian	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-
45	LANDMAN Martin	4%	18%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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