Crescent City Open RJCC/ROC

Div II Men's Épée

Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 1:00 PM

Riverside Hilton - New Orleans, LA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	TIEMANN Landen	3%	24%	40%	25%	7%	1%
2	MCMAHAN Christopher D.	27%	42%	24%	7%	1%	< 1%
3	HESS Marc F.	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%
3	ZANKOWSKI Brendan	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
5	RAY William	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
6	HERNDON Liam	-	6%	25%	39%	24%	5%
7	O'CONNOR Ryan (Ryan O'Connor) D.	-	5%	25%	45%	26%
8	POOLE James M.	-	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
9	EMMERT JP	-	4%	16%	34%	33%	12%
10	PARISI Nolan W.	-	6%	23%	40%	26%	5%
11	LAING Flynt	2%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%
12	MAI Ryan	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
13	ALLEY Everett T	1%	10%	38%	40%	12%
14	KASKAN Peter E.	-	2%	12%	34%	38%	15%
15	DERHAM Drew	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	14%
16	VILLAREAL Quentin	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%
17	GEIGER Devin T.	-	3%	27%	50%	19%
18	BLOM Mark D.	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
19	SCHWARY Irv	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
20	POHL Philip	11%	32%	35%	17%	4%	-
21	ESHONKULOV Aziz	3%	27%	40%	23%	6%	-
22	MAI Jonathan	-	1%	10%	31%	41%	17%
23	GASTON Ryan	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
24	YAWN Joshua	58%	34%	8%	1%	-	-
25	SOTTILE Cole	1%	17%	39%	31%	10%	1%
26	WAID Ian	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
27	SMALL slater	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%
28	CHEN Leetyan	17%	50%	27%	5%	-
29	HAWLEY Justin	57%	37%	6%	-	-
30	PHILLIPS Wesley Y.	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
31	MCINTURFF Walker	-	6%	24%	38%	25%	6%
32	DAVIS Richard M.	2%	19%	39%	30%	9%	1%
33	MAI Hung	10%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-
34	GUIDRY Rod	71%	25%	3%	-	-	-
35	STARR Michael	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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