The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Durkan American Dream RYC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, November 4, 2023 at 2:00 PM

Durkan Fencing Academy - Garfield, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SIMONOV Timofey	-	-	-	-	2%	19%	80%
2	HOU Gaven	-	-	6%	29%	45%	20%
3	GRIGORIEV Michael	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
3	CZARNECKI Thomas	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
5	CHENG Logan	-	-	-	1%	6%	34%	59%
6	XU Nathan	-	5%	21%	36%	29%	8%
7	NABASSOUA Djibril	1%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
8	KOVACS Harrison	-	3%	14%	29%	32%	18%	4%
9	TANG Royce	-	-	1%	11%	40%	47%
10	LEE Thomas	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	10%	2%
11	PLUMMER Waylon	-	1%	4%	15%	32%	34%	15%
12	VENAFRO Tristan	-	-	5%	22%	42%	28%	2%
13	MO Ethan	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
14	QIAN Zekai	1%	9%	25%	33%	23%	8%	1%
15	BEYDOUN Sam	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%	-
16	HART-SYED declan	5%	20%	33%	27%	12%	3%	-
17	ZHANG Ethan	1%	11%	33%	36%	16%	2%
18	BAI Austin	-	-	2%	15%	41%	42%
19	XIAN kevin	-	-	2%	19%	46%	33%
20	WANG Ancen	-	2%	16%	42%	32%	7%
21	KIM Daniel	4%	26%	42%	24%	5%	-
22	JAZWINSKI Ryan	-	-	3%	14%	36%	39%	9%
23	KUO Phineas	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	5%
24	CHEN kenneth	-	1%	10%	30%	39%	18%	1%
25	WANG Luke	-	1%	10%	34%	42%	13%
25	BAS Jonathan	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
27	KIAYIAS Alexander	2%	16%	37%	33%	12%	1%
28	YOUM Tyson	39%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-
29	MA Matthew	1%	7%	21%	32%	26%	11%	2%
30	ULYSSE Jacob	2%	15%	33%	33%	15%	2%
31	ZHAO David	26%	42%	24%	7%	1%	-
32	KIAYIAS Anthony	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	1%
33	RAJAT Rivaan	28%	47%	21%	4%	-	-	-
34	HAN Jiaren	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	4%	-
35	RAY Callum	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%	-
36	KAYE Ben	1%	11%	33%	38%	16%	2%
37	OH Joshua	-	4%	21%	39%	30%	6%
38	BRAIZINHA David	4%	24%	39%	26%	7%	1%
39	LEE Aeden	6%	29%	40%	21%	4%	-
40	CAO Joshua	12%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
41	CHOI Hunter	2%	18%	46%	28%	6%	-
42	MOON Nicolas	17%	52%	26%	4%	-	-
43	CONVERSO-PARSONS Alexander	4%	23%	37%	27%	8%	1%	-
44	ZHENG Austin	2%	14%	36%	34%	13%	2%	-
45	LEE Kyle	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
46	PITERBARG Lev	52%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
47	HUANG Marcus	58%	36%	6%	-	-	-
48	GUGALA Frank	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-
49	WEZWICK Luke	21%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
50	ALIMI Mousa	57%	35%	8%	1%	-	-
51	SHEN Lucas	17%	35%	31%	14%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.