GT Collegiate: Annual Fall Hack & Slash

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, November 5, 2023 at 11:00 AM

Georgia Tech Campus Recreation Center: Atlanta, GA - Atlanta, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SHAW Ian	-	-	1%	16%	50%	32%
2	RUTHERFURD John "Trace"	-	-	1%	11%	48%	41%
3	FORD Tillman	-	2%	11%	31%	37%	17%	2%
4	WAGNER Lyndsay	-	1%	6%	27%	48%	19%
5	WEBB Jacob	2%	16%	40%	33%	9%
6	SHAFRITZ Noah	-	-	2%	12%	36%	39%	10%
7	ZHOU Alec	-	-	-	2%	21%	77%
8	SINGH Arnav	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
9	NGUYEN Audrey	-	3%	24%	43%	26%	4%
10	KULIKOWSKI Adam	-	-	2%	17%	49%	32%
11	PARCELEWICZ John	-	3%	20%	46%	26%	4%
12	YAWN Joshua	4%	23%	44%	25%	4%	-
13	WANG Maxwell	-	-	-	1%	9%	38%	52%
14	KIM Daniel	-	1%	9%	34%	45%	12%
15	NWOKOLO Lotenne	-	7%	25%	37%	24%	5%
16	LEE Daehyeon	4%	21%	40%	29%	6%	-
17	CARRIE Konnor	13%	45%	33%	9%	1%
19	SOTTILE Cole	2%	16%	38%	34%	9%	1%
20	MAI Ryan	1%	10%	31%	38%	19%	2%
21	ORLANDO Dante	1%	11%	35%	39%	13%	1%
22	CANTRELL Jason	-	5%	26%	45%	24%
23	CHAMBERS Matthew	-	6%	28%	44%	21%
24	HAWKINS Sophia	8%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
25	TUCKER Evan	48%	40%	11%	1%	-
26	FRAZIER Wylie	1%	9%	35%	38%	15%	2%	-
27	PIERCE Chandon	17%	42%	32%	9%	1%	-
29	MOSS Riley	5%	37%	39%	16%	3%	-
31	AGUILLON Alexis	2%	17%	37%	33%	11%	-
32	RAVITA Henry	44%	46%	10%	1%	-	-
33	WATKINS James	-	6%	32%	43%	17%	2%	-
34	MACKEVICIUS Nykolas	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
35	DOUGLAS John	-	3%	18%	42%	34%	3%
36	LY Gabriel	4%	26%	45%	23%	2%	-
37	AGYEN-FREMPONG Nic	3%	24%	44%	24%	4%	-
38	ELEY Ellis	3%	32%	43%	19%	2%	-
40	SHADOFF Samantha	14%	69%	16%	1%	-	-	-
41	STEWART Sarah	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-
42	MCLENDON Matthew	40%	46%	13%	1%	-	-
43	DORAN McKenna	29%	42%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
44	RATTEERREE Michelle	5%	23%	37%	27%	8%	1%
46	MENDEZ Lucero	7%	30%	40%	20%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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