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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	CHENG Logan	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
2	KO Caleb	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	18%
3	SIMONOV Timofey	-	-	-	1%	14%	85%
3	MARTIN Darius	-	1%	7%	33%	50%	9%
5	BORKOWSKI Olgierd	-	-	1%	7%	33%	60%
6	MO Ethan	-	4%	20%	36%	30%	9%
7	JIMENEZ Naveen	-	-	3%	17%	46%	35%
8	SENANI Arjun	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	5%
9	CHO Xzander	-	-	4%	22%	47%	26%
10	MARTIRE Luca	2%	15%	34%	34%	14%	2%
11	XU Nathan	-	2%	15%	36%	36%	12%
12	GRIGORIEV Michael	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
13	BAI Austin	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
14	CHEN kenneth	2%	14%	33%	35%	15%	1%
15	NABASSOUA Djibril	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
16	KUO Phineas	-	5%	24%	39%	25%	5%
17	PLUMMER Waylon	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	26%
17	HOLMES Alexiy	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	21%
19	QIAN Zekai	-	4%	21%	42%	30%	2%
20	HOU Gaven	-	6%	27%	44%	20%	2%
21	POLEBOYINA Amrit	1%	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%
22	JAZWINSKI Ryan	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
23	DIAZ Gabriel	3%	19%	38%	31%	8%	1%
23	LIANG Haojia	28%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
25	HAN Alexander	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%
26	KIAYIAS Alexander	17%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
27	WU Isaac	11%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
28	KRZYWON Dylan	9%	31%	37%	19%	5%	-
29	ZHENG Austin	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
30	KOVACS Harrison	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%
31	MOREA Anderson	9%	35%	40%	14%	1%	-
32	BEYDOUN Sam	8%	30%	39%	20%	4%	-
33	WANG Ancen	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
34	ZHANG Ethan	2%	15%	36%	35%	11%	-
35	GRUNENWALD Henri	4%	24%	40%	26%	6%	-
36	ZHANG Julian	16%	38%	32%	13%	2%	-
37	HWANG Jacob	42%	41%	15%	2%	-	-
38	KAYE Ben	23%	44%	27%	6%	-	-
39	REYES Yannik	6%	29%	40%	21%	4%	-
40	FOGELSON Hugh	1%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
40	YOUM Tyson	53%	38%	8%	1%	-	-
42	ULYSSE Jacob	6%	29%	38%	21%	5%	1%
43	WANG Luke	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%
44	BLACK Henry	24%	43%	25%	7%	1%	-
45	CHOI Hunter	21%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-
45	ZHANG Ethan	22%	42%	28%	7%	1%	-
47	BAS Jonathan	14%	36%	33%	14%	2%	-
48	BRAIZINHA David	13%	44%	33%	10%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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