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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIN Felix	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
2	CLARK Keagan	-	-	5%	27%	44%	23%
3	SEMP Brannon A.	-	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
3	JACKSON Evan	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	8%
5	SU Ji	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	3%
6	STAM August M.	-	-	4%	20%	42%	34%
7	FENG Brendan	7%	28%	39%	22%	4%	-
8	MONTESI Eric	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
9	ROSE Colin	-	-	2%	10%	28%	40%	21%
10	PARCELL Colby	2%	17%	39%	31%	10%	1%
11	CASSIDY Connor J.	-	3%	17%	41%	37%	2%
12	DELALIO Peter	-	-	-	2%	22%	76%
13	XIE Eric	-	1%	13%	38%	37%	11%
14	PETERS Nathan M.	-	-	6%	29%	45%	20%
15	FEIRA Justin	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	9%
16	GOOD Harrison	9%	62%	26%	3%	-	-
17	WALKER Terra	2%	15%	34%	34%	13%	2%
18	ROCHARDSON Payten	-	2%	10%	31%	40%	17%
19	MAY Matthew	1%	7%	24%	36%	26%	7%
20	PHAM Matthew	-	12%	46%	33%	8%	1%
21	URIBE David	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
22	CAYABAN Jessica	12%	40%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
23	ABU-AJAJ Mohamed	6%	26%	38%	24%	6%	-
24	LEE Matthew	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
25	STEVENS Chrysanthi Z.	4%	30%	41%	21%	4%	-
26	LAUDO Joseph	2%	18%	41%	29%	8%	1%	-
27	CATLETT III Robert	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	5%
28	DREHER Matthew	-	1%	25%	43%	26%	5%
29	MENDEL Derron	10%	34%	37%	17%	3%	-
30	LAWLESS Elizabeth	6%	24%	37%	26%	8%	1%
31	WALLACE Leo	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
32	NI Hao	22%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
33	COURTNEY Elizabeth	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	4%
34	LESTYAN Cat	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-
35	POWERS Gabriel	6%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-
35	PRICE Jesse	28%	44%	22%	5%	-	-
37	WANG Kelley	74%	24%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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