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Utah/Southern Idaho and Friends Epee Cup

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, November 18, 2023 at 12:00 PM

Wasatch Fencing Club - Kaysville, UT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	CARRIER Gabriel	-	-	-	-	1%	8%	36%	54%
2	MERRIAM Isaiah	-	-	-	4%	21%	43%	31%
3	CUMMINGS Atticus	-	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
3	DANIELS Jonah	-	3%	14%	30%	32%	17%	3%
5	MEHALL Michael	-	-	-	3%	15%	41%	41%
6	CHRISTENSEN Parker	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
7	MACK Jason	-	-	2%	11%	33%	39%	14%
8	JAN Timothy	-	-	1%	5%	19%	37%	31%	7%
9	VANDERVELDE Pierce	-	-	2%	14%	37%	39%	7%
10	SPITLER Ansel	-	3%	12%	28%	33%	19%	5%	-
11	EVERETT Taiger	-	-	1%	5%	22%	40%	29%	4%
12	STAY David	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%	-
13	CARRIER Meredith	-	-	5%	27%	47%	19%	2%
14	PULLARA Ashley	-	2%	17%	38%	32%	10%	1%
15	RAINEY Zoe-Andrea	4%	18%	32%	29%	13%	3%	-
16	FERGUSON Jason	-	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%	-
17	MALLON Jaxson	-	4%	19%	38%	28%	9%	1%
18	CHRISTIAN Lyn	2%	13%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-	-
19	WHITE Phillip	1%	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	-
20	NAROTZKY Emma	-	5%	19%	32%	27%	12%	3%	-
20	WROTEN Oliver	-	5%	20%	34%	28%	10%	1%	-
22	SALZER Scott	1%	8%	25%	35%	24%	7%	1%	-
23	SMITH Zeph	6%	23%	33%	25%	11%	2%	-	-
24	LITTLE Alex	3%	26%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
25	DANIELS Jonathan	1%	6%	24%	39%	24%	6%	-
26	HANNAN Trevor	3%	21%	39%	28%	8%	1%	-
27	SMITH Eli	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
28	WHITESIDES Ella	1%	9%	32%	40%	16%	2%	-
29	LLOYD Melanie	2%	20%	47%	25%	5%	1%	-	-
30	RAY Jessica	16%	41%	33%	9%	1%	-	-
31	RALSTON Katherine	33%	44%	19%	3%	-	-	-
32	GO-LINK Davin	2%	12%	30%	32%	18%	5%	1%	-
33	BIRT Dagny	12%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
34	GRAVIS Martin	18%	41%	29%	10%	2%	-	-	-
35	STAY Magdalena	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	1%	-
36	GARDNER Desaree	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-	-
37	MADSON Grant	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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