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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	CHA Patrick	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
2	DONG Joshua	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
3	KEMLE Brian	-	6%	25%	43%	25%
3	WILLIAMS Eli	-	-	6%	28%	51%	15%
5	ROLON Jose	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
6	BURRUSS Aaron	3%	20%	43%	29%	5%
7	LIU Oscar	1%	7%	29%	45%	19%
8	STUESSY Nolan	3%	24%	43%	26%	4%
9	REYNOLDS Jeremiah	-	3%	19%	43%	28%	5%
10	HAYES Zackery	4%	34%	42%	18%	2%
10	KNIGHT Thomas	-	3%	19%	44%	33%
12	ODBADRAKH Batu	-	3%	24%	48%	25%
13	DERRINGER Derrick	-	7%	30%	41%	20%	2%
14	WAHL Nathan	1%	13%	38%	37%	11%
15	RHOTON Christian	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
16	ARNOLD Samuel	22%	64%	14%	-	-
17	KINDEL Amara	-	4%	20%	38%	29%	8%
18	MOYNIHAN Jones	4%	24%	45%	24%	4%
19	SEATON Jake	3%	21%	41%	29%	6%
20	MARKOV Dmitry	-	18%	43%	32%	7%
21	HELFORD Lane	-	-	4%	21%	43%	32%
22	STEWART Brian	1%	14%	40%	38%	8%
23	BLANDA Joseph	1%	18%	41%	32%	7%
24	HALE Eli	1%	12%	37%	38%	13%
25	SPAULDING Maleah	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
26	PAROCAI William	4%	35%	44%	15%	2%	-
27	MASSIE Jay	1%	27%	45%	24%	3%
28	CARRUTH Mae	12%	36%	35%	14%	2%
29	SEAGE Jane	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%
30	BELL Solomon	30%	47%	20%	3%	-
31	BARRETT John	7%	41%	42%	9%	1%	-
32	BRANHAM Willow	30%	44%	22%	4%	-
33	NICHOLAS massey	23%	44%	27%	7%	1%
34	FORD Mattie	41%	40%	16%	3%	-	-
35	WADE Carson	5%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-
36	STEELE Alexis	66%	29%	5%	-	-
37	REZKALLA Uanna	66%	30%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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