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Battle in Space City ROC/RJCC

Junior Men's Épée

Saturday, December 9, 2023 at 12:00 PM

University of Houston - Campus Recreation and Wellness Center - Houston, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KHANNA Nikhil	-	-	-	4%	18%	42%	36%
2	ELHUSSEINI Dylan	-	-	1%	6%	25%	46%	23%
3	HU Robert J.	-	1%	6%	23%	39%	27%	4%
3	DANIELS Jonah	-	-	1%	7%	24%	40%	28%
5	ROMANOV Ethan	-	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
6	THOMAS Harris	-	-	-	3%	16%	45%	36%
7	KOSTUSIAK Evan	21%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
8	SEEFELDT William Henry C.	-	-	-	2%	11%	38%	49%
9	SENNEWALD Frederick A.	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	59%
10	HERNDON Liam	2%	10%	25%	33%	22%	8%	1%
11	AGARWAL Adheesh	-	1%	6%	21%	37%	28%	7%
12	ZHU Eric	-	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	14%
13	HERNANDEZ Cole F.	-	5%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
14	SOOS Whitman	11%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
15	RAO Neil	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
16	COHEN Nathan	2%	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-
17	GONZALEZ Kian	-	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
18	MALLON Jaxson	-	4%	16%	31%	31%	14%	2%
19	EMMERT JP	-	4%	17%	35%	31%	12%	1%
20	SURESH NEERAJ	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
21	LI Tristan	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
22	GILSBACH Ben	8%	27%	34%	22%	8%	1%	-
23	ELHUSSEINI Kyle	-	2%	10%	28%	37%	21%	3%
23	KARIDIS-SCHNEIDER Samuel	4%	19%	33%	28%	12%	3%	-
25	CHEN Leetyan	2%	12%	28%	32%	19%	6%	1%
26	DADE MAXIMUS	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%	1%
27	SPITLER Ansel	-	1%	11%	30%	37%	18%	3%
28	TIEMANN Landen	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	1%
29	DECKER Hunter	2%	13%	28%	32%	19%	6%	1%
30	HAWLEY Justin	16%	41%	31%	10%	2%	-	-
31	MANGAN Hunter	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
32	LU Haoyang	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
33	ESHONKULOV Aziz	4%	27%	40%	23%	6%	1%	-
34	LIN Zizhen	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
35	LESCURE Dimitri	-	4%	16%	30%	31%	16%	3%
36	LIOZNYANSKY Miron	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
37	BARTON Christian	7%	26%	35%	23%	8%	1%	-
38	POHL Philip	11%	31%	34%	19%	5%	1%	-
39	WILLIAMS Nasir	5%	19%	33%	28%	13%	3%	-
40	PATEL Aayan	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-	-
41	DADE Augustus	66%	29%	5%	-	-	-	-
42	DENISON Van	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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