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Battle in Space City ROC/RJCC

Div II Men's Épée

Saturday, December 9, 2023 at 3:00 PM

University of Houston - Campus Recreation and Wellness Center - Houston, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DECKER Hunter	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	1%
2	AGARWAL Adheesh	-	-	4%	20%	40%	32%	4%
3	SPITLER Ansel	-	3%	15%	31%	32%	15%	3%
3	EMMERT JP	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
5	RAO Neil	5%	22%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
6	HERNDON Liam	1%	7%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%
7	ELLISOR Drayten	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%
8	LIN Zizhen	4%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
9	HERNANDEZ Cole F.	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	13%	1%
10	TIEMANN Landen	-	5%	18%	34%	30%	12%	1%
11	PARK Peter	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
12	GASTON Ryan	-	2%	11%	31%	40%	17%
13	ROBINSON Matthew	-	2%	12%	28%	34%	19%	4%
14	GREEN Zachary J.	-	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
15	ALTINKOPRU Teoman	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
16	PEI Suyang	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	16%
17	KASKAN Peter E.	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
18	KERTESZ Stefan G.	-	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	8%
19	MCMAHAN Christopher D.	2%	14%	34%	33%	14%	2%
20	STERR Eric	-	3%	13%	31%	33%	17%	3%
21	GEIGER Devin T.	-	1%	7%	23%	38%	26%	5%
22	LIOZNYANSKY Miron	3%	18%	35%	29%	12%	2%	-
23	POOLE James M.	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
24	DANIELS Jonah	-	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
25	COHEN Nathan	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%	-
26	GREGORY Dean	-	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
27	LU Haoyang	18%	41%	30%	10%	1%	-
28	KARIDIS-SCHNEIDER Samuel	13%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
29	CHEN Leetyan	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
30	OLSON Joseph	15%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-
31	KOSTUSIAK Evan	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
32	POHL Philip	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-	-
33	PATEL Aayan	33%	41%	20%	5%	1%	-	-
34	MORRIS Quentin	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
35	WILLIAMS Nasir	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%	-
36	BARTON Christian	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
37	LI Tristan	3%	18%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
38	DANIELS Jonathan	20%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
39	GOODMAN Benjamin	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
40	ESHONKULOV Aziz	5%	24%	36%	25%	9%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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