Nittany Lion Cup RYC/RJCC

Cadet Women's Saber

Saturday, December 16, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Nittany Valley Sports Centre - State College, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	MCGRAW Sadie	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
2	NIU Jessica	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	12%
3	FLATT Sophia	-	4%	17%	36%	33%	10%
3	PRESANTH Nandana	-	4%	22%	41%	29%	5%
5	MANKOVA Varvara	-	-	1%	10%	38%	50%
6	BAINS Nandini	-	5%	22%	39%	29%	5%
7	GENTILE Vittoria	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
8	MACKAY Katherine	1%	12%	35%	37%	15%	2%
9	CHEN Victoria	-	-	4%	22%	44%	30%
10	MANI Francesca B.	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
11	XU Demi	15%	39%	33%	12%	2%	-
12	REKHTMAN Alice	2%	16%	38%	32%	11%	1%
13	REN Katherine	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	6%
14	HANLON Lucy	-	8%	30%	39%	20%	3%
15	MAGITSKY Leila	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%
16	KRASOWITZ Lucy	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
17	RANJAN Diya	1%	7%	24%	36%	26%	7%
18	DEHON Inès	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
19	WONG Charlene	10%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-
20	DESAUTELS Alexandra	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
21	VISWANATHAN Nishka	4%	31%	41%	20%	4%	-
22	KHOST Maeve	-	3%	20%	41%	30%	7%
23	SUH Gah Ohn Anna	22%	46%	26%	6%	1%	-
24	FORD Anna	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
25	LEE Kaitlin	13%	38%	34%	13%	2%	-
26	HUANG Zoe	36%	45%	17%	3%	-	-
27	SULLIVAN Siobhan R.R.	18%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-
27	ROH Chloe	4%	28%	41%	22%	4%	-
29	VATS Ishita	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
30	MANGAT Alexis	75%	22%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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