Fairfax Challenge ROC/RJCC/RYC & Y8

Y-12 Men's Saber

Sunday, January 21, 2024 at 3:00 PM

Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HENRY Cadel	-	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
2	D'AMELJ Edoardo	-	2%	9%	27%	39%	23%
3	CHANG Ethan	-	1%	8%	32%	44%	16%
3	LIAO Sirui	-	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%
5	JOHNSON Leland	-	-	2%	14%	43%	42%
6	BROOKS Theo	3%	15%	32%	33%	16%	3%
7	PERRIN Leo	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
8	YI Andrew	-	-	4%	22%	46%	27%
9	LI Andrew	-	-	2%	14%	42%	41%
10	LEVY Daniel	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	6%
11	GRABOWSKI Alexander	-	1%	10%	42%	41%	6%
12	DETERMAN Sebastian	-	7%	28%	43%	20%	2%
13	CHOU Qianhao	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	7%
14	BADMUS Joshua	-	2%	13%	35%	38%	12%
15	PROSPER Nathaniel	6%	26%	40%	24%	5%	-
16	LIU Jayden	-	4%	22%	43%	26%	4%
17	TAKEBE Ren	-	-	3%	14%	34%	35%	14%
18	ALLEN Asa	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%
19	VALIYEV Aslan	27%	46%	23%	4%	-	-
20	ZHANG Weihang	4%	23%	40%	26%	7%	1%
21	SLAVNOV Anton	-	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
22	JAVIER Xavier	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
23	PIPKE Garrett	7%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%
24	BERGAN Chase	25%	45%	25%	5%	-	-
25	PLATT Michael (Trace)	1%	11%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
26	WANG Ziyao	9%	32%	39%	17%	3%	-
27	DONNELL Cillian	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
28	LEE Aiden	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
29	BADMUS David	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-
30	PETACCHI Leonardo	16%	44%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
31	BROOKS Isaac	11%	38%	36%	13%	2%	-
32	URQUILLA Devin	51%	40%	8%	1%	-	-	-
33	ABRAMSON Zander	-	1%	12%	38%	39%	9%
34	TOURÉ-DEMARCO Toussaint	21%	44%	29%	6%	-	-
35	SAFAI Bardia	22%	44%	28%	6%	1%	-
35	PISTILLI James	9%	29%	35%	21%	6%	1%
37	BONGIORNO Redding	15%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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