IFC 2024 Winter Classic

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, January 21, 2024 at 9:00 AM

Indianapolis Fencing Club - Indianapolis, IN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SOBESHKEVYCH Roman	-	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
2	GERACI Paul A.	-	1%	12%	34%	38%	14%
3	SMOTHERMAN Jason N.	-	-	5%	25%	45%	25%
3	THOMAS Samuel	-	-	-	1%	13%	46%	40%
5	BARFORD Giovanni	8%	29%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
6	STAUBITZ Marc	15%	43%	32%	9%	1%	-	-
7	DAZEY Jason T.	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
8	DUNKLIN Cameron	-	4%	21%	39%	28%	7%
9	PRIJATEL John R.	-	-	6%	27%	44%	23%
10	SON Eric	-	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%
11	PAMERLEAU Ian	-	-	-	5%	24%	47%	24%
12	KRAJ Pawel	-	1%	8%	29%	43%	20%
13	LAUER Michael	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
14	EDWARDS Tim	-	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	16%
15	SWANSON Dave	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	25%
16	REED Dusty (Allen)	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	21%
17	MILLER Brent	6%	30%	39%	20%	5%	-
18	SERAFYM Damian	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	20%	3%
19	FANG Samuel	1%	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%
20	HE Lingyun Matthew	1%	52%	37%	9%	1%	-
21	SOARE Maria Elena	13%	41%	33%	11%	2%	-
22	VAN DYK Mark	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
23	LASKA Patryk	1%	12%	34%	35%	15%	2%
24	MACNEIL Matthew	-	14%	54%	27%	4%	-
25	KRAVITZ Sarah	3%	36%	40%	17%	3%	-
26	FAUGHT Dalton	2%	16%	41%	31%	9%	1%
27	MILLER Hayden	13%	42%	34%	10%	1%	-	-
28	WILTSHIRE Kaden	22%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
29	RIPLEY Ian	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	10%
30	CHUTKAY Sai Pratham	-	7%	31%	42%	17%	2%
30	MBERIA Alexander	10%	53%	30%	6%	-	-
32	TARR Robert	-	< 1%	5%	22%	39%	28%	7%
33	ORGAN Jason	8%	31%	40%	18%	3%	-	-
34	PIERCE Marcia M.	1%	11%	33%	38%	15%	2%	-
35	MACNEIL Sydney	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
36	BRETHAUER Adah	62%	32%	6%	-	-	-
37	DUTTON Kitty	64%	31%	4%	-	-	-
38	WELLS Aenea	74%	23%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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