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February Fenceathon

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 2:00 PM

The Fencing Center of San Jose - san jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4
1	KHAYAT Ziad N.	-	-	-	7%	93%
2	FAUBERT Andy C.	-	-	1%	19%	80%
3	SMAY II Joseph E.	-	6%	32%	51%	10%
3	SOULAIRE Tom	-	-	3%	29%	68%
5	LIANG Jingjing	30%	47%	20%	3%	< 1%
6	KUO Rylan	-	6%	33%	50%	11%
7	BOYCE Samuel H.	-	-	2%	26%	72%
8	WONG Preston	1%	23%	50%	24%	2%
9	KOERBER Christopher T.	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
10	XU Yanwen	18%	46%	31%	5%	-
11	GUO Woody	37%	46%	16%	2%	-
12	MANA Arnav	7%	38%	44%	11%	-
13	ACKERMANN Richard	4%	31%	45%	19%	-
14	FAN Jordan	61%	33%	6%	-	-
15	KUO Michael	4%	24%	41%	26%	5%
16	TONG Samuel	2%	21%	46%	30%	1%
17	CLAES Thomas	8%	35%	43%	14%	1%
18	NIKIFOROV Timofei	5%	32%	45%	18%	-
19	CHA Eugenie	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%
20	MARIANI Lou	-	6%	34%	57%	3%
21	TAGKOPOULOS Pagkratios	8%	49%	36%	7%	-
22	KOUTSOUKOS James	-	16%	44%	33%	7%
23	PLOSCARU Matthew	20%	46%	30%	4%	-
24	URSU Oana M.	38%	44%	16%	2%	-
24	MARTIN Zachary	76%	22%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.