March NAC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, March 2, 2024 at 1:30 PM

Oregon Convention Center - Portland, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 LI Bradley 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 70%
2 CHEN Hanson 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 76%
3 DOELL Ethan 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 56%
3 CHANG Jonathan 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 87% 48%
5 MAZAHERI Fletcher 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 83% 40%
6 CHENG Logan 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 39%
7 PARK William 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 54% 16%
8 WANDJI Noah 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 73% 31%
9 YANG Charles 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 35%
10 KO Caleb 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 59%
11 LU Alex 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 45%
12 DESERANNO Leander 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 76% 32%
13 ZHENG Marcus 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 41% 11%
14 TSE Ngon Yin Anson 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 77% 35%
15 CHEN Anson 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 50% 11%
16 HAYES Stewart 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 58% 20%
17 SIMONOV Timofey 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 67%
18 RODRIGUEZ Tyler 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 39%
18 YU ShiYu (Henry) 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 62% 21%
20 CHANG Eric Jonathan 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 39%
20 CHANG Jeremy 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 23%
22 HUA Aaron 100% 100% 99% 88% 56% 17%
23 ONG Nicholas 100% 100% 96% 79% 43% 10%
24 ZHOU Shawn 100% 100% 94% 70% 25%
25 BIELER Mason 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 54% 16%
26 KIM Gene 100% 100% 100% 96% 78% 41% 8%
27 XIE Wenxi 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 44% 12%
28 WANG Tiger 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 50% 12%
29 FUKUDA Brando 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 72% 31%
30 WU Wallace 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 44% 11%
31 LU Mengdi 100% 100% 98% 87% 60% 26% 5%
32 LIU Alex 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 30% 4%
33 LI Edison M. 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 63% 22%
34 GRIGORIEV Michael 100% 100% 99% 93% 66% 20%
35 PAN Ethan 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 50% 12%
36 LOZANO Veyron Jericho 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 67% 25%
37 ZHAO Nathan 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 71% 30%
37 LI Lucas 100% 100% 98% 87% 55% 19% 2%
39 QU Zhida (richard) 100% 100% 99% 89% 51% 12% 1%
40 XIE Jayden 100% 100% 100% 93% 67% 26% 3%
41 NAIR Sujit 100% 99% 91% 65% 31% 8% 1%
42 SHIN Noah 100% 100% 95% 77% 43% 13% 1%
43 TOOMRE Kai 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 66% 24%
44 YOU Alan 100% 100% 100% 98% 89% 58% 15%
45 HOU Gaven 100% 100% 100% 96% 80% 46% 12%
46 XU Nathan 100% 100% 98% 85% 55% 21% 3%
47 QIAN Henry 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 34% 6%
48 LI Daniel 100% 99% 91% 66% 30% 6%
49 WANG Elijah (QiChen) 100% 99% 94% 74% 39% 10%
50 GE Felix Fei 100% 100% 95% 74% 28%
51 LYU Mingye 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 67% 22%
52 OZAWA Taishi 100% 100% 97% 85% 55% 20% 3%
52 HARRIS Hayden 100% 95% 73% 39% 13% 2% -
54 YANG Tate 100% 100% 96% 82% 53% 20% 3%
55 WEI Winston 100% 100% 97% 81% 48% 15% 2%
56 HUYNH Matthew 100% 100% 98% 86% 54% 19% 3%
57 WANG sicheng 100% 99% 93% 72% 37% 11% 1%
58 XIAN kevin 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 76% 28%
59 FANG Haoyu 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 48% 13%
60 LEUNG Tsun Yin (TY) 100% 100% 97% 79% 44% 14% 2%
61 FEDELI Francesco 100% 100% 100% 98% 82% 38%
62 LU Jingyi 100% 100% 100% 94% 67% 21%
63 EVANS Desmond 100% 98% 84% 51% 16% 2%
64 GOERDEL Hitchens 100% 93% 69% 34% 10% 2% -
65 ZHANG Raphael 100% 100% 100% 95% 79% 44% 11%
66 QIAN Zekai 100% 100% 98% 85% 54% 18% 1%
67 PARK Jayden 100% 99% 88% 59% 25% 6% -
68 YANG Steve 100% 100% 96% 78% 40% 7%
69 YU ShiLin (Harry) 100% 100% 100% 96% 74% 34% 6%
70 YE Jerry 100% 100% 99% 85% 49% 14% 1%
71 LI Mercury 100% 100% 100% 97% 79% 36% 6%
72 HE Ian 100% 100% 97% 86% 59% 25% 4%
73 RAU Shogun 100% 100% 99% 91% 64% 25% 4%
74 MAO Runxian 100% 98% 85% 54% 21% 4% -
75 PAINTER Zachary 100% 98% 88% 62% 28% 7% 1%
76 SUAREZ Lucas 100% 99% 94% 72% 37% 10% 1%
77 CHIANG Aiden 100% 88% 54% 19% 4% - -
78 WANG Mendy 100% 100% 98% 89% 64% 29% 6%
79 JIN Xuechong Daniel 100% 99% 91% 66% 29% 6% -
80 PARK Avan 100% 83% 47% 16% 3% - -
81 YU Eric 100% 100% 97% 84% 49% 13%
82 HONG Edwin 100% 94% 69% 31% 7% 1%
83 KIM Daniel 100% 96% 75% 37% 8% 1%
84 KIAYIAS Alexander 100% 97% 80% 47% 16% 2%
85 SHEN Alaric 100% 85% 20% 2% - -
86 PARK Andrew 100% 99% 92% 64% 24% 2%
87 GUO Austin 100% 94% 68% 29% 6% 1%
88 JIN Honglim 100% 100% 100% 98% 83% 45% 10%
89 PAN Howard Haoran 100% 100% 94% 69% 30% 6% -
90 GUO Joey 100% 100% 94% 68% 31% 7% 1%
91 ZHAI Alex 100% 99% 94% 74% 42% 13% 2%
91 MAZAHERI John 100% 94% 70% 35% 10% 2% -
93 CHEN Steven 100% 100% 94% 71% 33% 8% 1%
94 HART-SYED declan 100% 85% 45% 11% 1%
95 XU Ethan 100% 100% 96% 76% 40% 10% 1%
96 TSANG Kwok Kuen 100% 100% 96% 79% 47% 16% 2%
97 WANG Waylon 100% 99% 90% 62% 24% 5% -
98 ZHENG Lerui 100% 98% 87% 57% 22% 3% -
99 HOARE Gabriel 100% 84% 33% 6% 1% - -
100 JUE Lucas 100% 77% 36% 9% 1% - -
101 WANG Caleb 100% 98% 86% 55% 20% 4% -
102 LEE Abin 100% 99% 91% 66% 29% 6% -
103 VENAFRO Tristan 100% 100% 96% 80% 47% 16% 2%
104 POPOKH Luca 100% 98% 84% 52% 19% 3% -
105 CHANG Parker 100% 99% 93% 70% 32% 6%
106 GANAPATHI Eshan 100% 99% 86% 52% 15% 2%
107 BAI Austin 100% 100% 96% 78% 42% 10%
108 PESKIN Kepler 100% 96% 71% 31% 6% -
109 NABASSOUA Djibril 100% 100% 97% 74% 26% 3%
110 CZARNECKI Thomas 100% 99% 90% 61% 21% 2%
110 LI Ryan 100% 100% 96% 78% 42% 10%
112 XING Ocean 100% 100% 94% 50% 12% 1%
113 PLUMMER Waylon 100% 100% 96% 77% 39% 9%
114 ZHANG Jason 100% 99% 94% 74% 41% 13% 2%
115 KIM Seoheul 100% 97% 78% 40% 11% 1% -
116 SLAIN Owen 100% 99% 94% 73% 37% 9% 1%
117 DIFRANK Avery 100% 97% 78% 43% 15% 3% -
118 BHUPATHIRAJU Arjun 100% 100% 99% 92% 63% 22% 2%
118 SHAFFER Henry 100% 99% 79% 41% 12% 2% -
120 CHOI Hunter 100% 95% 69% 30% 6% 1% -
121 WANG Eason 100% 94% 61% 22% 4% - -
122 YU Jinyuan 100% 77% 36% 10% 1% - -
123 QI Ethan 100% 98% 84% 50% 17% 3%
124 ULYSSE Jacob 100% 91% 60% 23% 4% -
125 FOO Kingston 100% 83% 44% 13% 2% - -
126 CHEN Kurtis 100% 99% 92% 68% 33% 8% 1%
127 KUANG Cyrus 100% 100% 98% 83% 45% 11% 1%
128 WU Gengze (Daniel) 100% 97% 79% 46% 17% 3% -
129 GUGALA Frank 100% 91% 55% 17% 2% -
130 WEI Augustus 100% 99% 87% 53% 18% 2%
131 CHEN Jason 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 16% 1%
132 WU Thomas 100% 100% 93% 67% 27% 4% -
132 ZHANG Aiden 100% 95% 71% 34% 9% 1% -
134 CHEN Ryker 100% 98% 83% 52% 20% 4% -
134 MAZAHERI Theodore 100% 95% 73% 37% 10% 1% -
136 KWONG Colin 100% 87% 52% 18% 3% - -
137 LIN George 100% 94% 71% 36% 10% 1% -
138 ZHENG Jonathan 100% 100% 92% 58% 19% 3% -
139 ZHENG Austin 100% 68% 25% 5% - -
140 SUN Roy 100% 95% 70% 30% 6% -
141 OH Christopher 100% 100% 99% 89% 59% 19%
142 KIM Andrew 100% 98% 72% 31% 7% 1%
143 LIN Stewart 100% 62% 20% 3% - -
144 YAN Rian 100% 97% 76% 36% 8% 1%
145 KUANG Vincent 100% 99% 92% 69% 32% 8% 1%
146 BEDWORTH Alistair 100% 97% 81% 46% 15% 2% -
147 CAO Joshua 100% 97% 79% 43% 12% 1% -
148 YEE Colin 100% 99% 92% 70% 37% 11% 1%
149 HO Christopher 100% 98% 86% 55% 22% 4% -
150 SHARMA Ari 100% 98% 80% 42% 12% 2% -
151 ZHOU Ezra 100% 97% 74% 32% 7% 1% -
152 TAN benjamin 100% 91% 61% 24% 5% 1% -
153 LEE Conrad 100% 100% 97% 79% 36% 8% 1%
154 ALVAREZ Francisco Janusz 100% 95% 72% 37% 11% 2% -
155 KAJITA Grayson 100% 62% 17% 1% - - -
156 JIN Xueyuan George 100% 87% 49% 13% 1%
157 LIU Aiden 100% 24% 2% - - -
158 TROUSDALE Brody 100% 93% 63% 25% 4% -
159 CREMEL Remi 100% 91% 60% 22% 4% -
160 LEE Aeden 100% 56% 16% 2% - -
161 HUYNH Kaleb 100% 70% 27% 5% 1% -
162 XING Lucas 100% 99% 93% 68% 29% 5% -
163 GRIGORYAN Erik 100% 91% 61% 26% 6% 1% -
164 HE Gary 100% 73% 32% 8% 1% - -
165 MURDOCK Koichi 100% 99% 84% 47% 15% 2% -
166 WU Vincent Moxiao 100% 92% 62% 26% 6% 1% -
167 TEOH Liam 100% 88% 43% 9% 1% - -
167 DING Sam 100% 92% 62% 26% 6% 1% -
169 ROPER Griffin 100% 77% 22% 3% - - -
170 LI Aaron 100% 77% 36% 10% 1% - -
171 LAM Kirin 100% 93% 64% 27% 6% 1% -
172 QIU Yiran 100% 40% 7% 1% - - -
172 LIN Travis 100% 99% 87% 55% 22% 4% -
174 WONG Connor 100% 89% 56% 21% 4% - -
175 CHEN Solomon 100% 78% 35% 8% 1% - -
176 SONG Enoch 100% 96% 78% 43% 14% 2% -
177 NGO Lincoln 100% 45% 8% 1% - - -
178 ZHANG Derek 100% 99% 73% 32% 7% 1% -
179 SHENOY sean 100% 83% 45% 14% 2% -
180 THOMAS Noah 100% 90% 59% 24% 5% - -
181 PROSSER Zachary 100% 79% 36% 7% 1%
182 HO Cameron 100% 54% 13% 1% - -
183 MAK Ryder 100% 99% 78% 36% 8% 1% -
184 DANTON Ryan 100% 99% 91% 66% 30% 7% 1%
185 ROBERTS Nikolai 100% 94% 70% 35% 10% 2% -
185 LAM Lazarus 100% 92% 64% 30% 8% 1% -
185 CAO Sean 100% 66% 25% 5% 1% - -
188 TANG Brayden 100% 74% 31% 6% 1% - -
189 GOLDSTEIN Benjamin 100% 69% 27% 6% 1% - -
189 MA Madrid 100% 44% 6% - - - -
191 GILLIS Philip 100% 98% 83% 46% 12% 1%
191 SERBAN Aaron 100% 29% 3% - - -
193 SHENOY Neil 100% 69% 26% 5% 1% - -
193 LI Alex 100% 81% 42% 13% 2% - -
193 MORALES Tycho 100% 79% 37% 9% 1% - -
193 CHANG Austin 100% 94% 68% 31% 7% 1% -
197 RIOS Miles 100% 97% 82% 49% 18% 3% -
198 ANDERSON Stellan 100% 10% - - - - -
199 LE Oliver 100% 13% 1% - - - -
200 LI Jonathan 100% 70% 27% 6% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.