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2019 Falcon Open

Senior Men's Épée

Saturday, September 14, 2019 at 9:00 AM

USAFA Center Gymnasium - Colorado Springs, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HAN Matthew	-	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	21%
2	BLYTH Jourdain L.	-	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
3	REES Daniel I.	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	34%
3	BRISLAWN Reilly R.	-	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
5	CHERIS Zachariah	-	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
6	SHUGART Henry R.	-	-	1%	9%	30%	40%	19%
7	SMITH Calvin R.	-	1%	10%	30%	36%	19%	3%
8	ALLGEIER Peter	-	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	6%
9	MAURER Chip (Charles) P.	-	1%	6%	24%	38%	25%	6%
10	GASPAROVICH IV George M.	-	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	13%
11	ALAIMO Charles	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	15%	2%
12	YUNG Zheng	-	3%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
13	KIMATIAN Stephen Z.	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
14	BOYCE Samuel H.	-	1%	9%	32%	38%	17%	2%
15	ALLGEIER Axel	-	5%	19%	35%	29%	10%	1%
16	COFFEY Jacob	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
17	BRANDRETH Garret	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
18	ALTMAN Jeff H.	-	1%	5%	19%	36%	30%	9%
19	LE BIHAN Henri	-	1%	9%	29%	37%	19%	3%
20	KOFROTH Zachary R.	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
21	NIEBERGALL Colin G.	-	-	-	4%	20%	42%	34%
22	HOLDERNESS Landon	-	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	1%
23	SMITH Jackson	-	3%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
24	KAJI Ty	-	6%	26%	37%	24%	6%	1%
25	SOLTER Kai	6%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
26	WALSH Kevin	7%	29%	37%	21%	6%	1%	-
27	TRIFILETTI Lawrence T.	-	7%	29%	39%	20%	4%	-
28	RICHARDSON Victor	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%	-
28	LUNA MARTINEZ Luis	34%	42%	20%	4%	-	-	-
30	ZHOU Jiasheng	5%	30%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
31	MAYFIELD Aaron	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
32	KRUGER Mark (Mark Kruger)	7%	33%	39%	17%	3%	-	-
33	YEE Rex	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
34	KENT IV David	30%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-	-
35	KIM Eugene	19%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
36	WALL Peter M.	9%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-	-
37	EBELL Ivan D.	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
38	EYMAN Hans	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
39	DE JONG Titus	60%	36%	4%	-	-	-	-
40	STAFURIK John (Jack) W.	1%	10%	27%	35%	22%	5%	-
41	THORESON Gary C.	6%	25%	37%	24%	8%	1%	-
42	RODRIGUEZ Eugenio	19%	42%	31%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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