Challenge by the Bay RYC/RCC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Monday, April 1, 2024 at 1:00 PM

University of California - Davis - Davis, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHANG Gwenyth	-	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
2	MIYASHIRO Katelyn	-	-	-	-	5%	31%	63%
3	HOM Avery	-	-	-	5%	24%	43%	28%
3	HSIAO Ariya	-	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
5	MA Isabelle	-	-	-	2%	16%	54%	28%
6	NEUMANN Erika	-	-	4%	21%	44%	30%
7	HSU Emily	-	-	-	1%	8%	42%	50%
8	HSU Rachel	-	1%	6%	23%	40%	27%	4%
9	ZHOU Joi	-	-	-	2%	15%	41%	42%
10	ARYA Leela	-	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
11	CHO Karis	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	19%
12	THOTA Akira	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	1%
13	PAN Samantha	-	-	4%	18%	37%	34%	7%
14	JENA Aanvi	-	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
15	ZHANG Queeny	-	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	9%
16	CHENG Audrey	1%	6%	23%	38%	27%	5%	-
17	WANG Ellen	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
18	LIN Avery	3%	19%	38%	29%	9%	1%
19	CHU Lauren	-	5%	19%	35%	29%	10%	1%
20	IRELAND Moira	3%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%	-
21	KO Adeline	4%	21%	38%	27%	9%	1%	-
22	STERNAD Pia	2%	20%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-
23	KIM Audrey	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
24	YU Xintong	10%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
25	YANG Byanca	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
26	TANG Amelia	-	2%	16%	38%	32%	11%	1%
27	HO Chloe	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%	-
28	YU-TAN Claire	4%	21%	37%	28%	8%	1%	-
29	HOM Emma	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%
30	PAWAR Sanvi	7%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
31	THERIOT Reagan	11%	33%	35%	17%	3%	-	-
32	VALOUEVA Katerina	32%	43%	20%	4%	-	-	-
33	HOFFMAN Isabelle	4%	22%	39%	27%	7%	1%	-
34	BHANGOO Paloma	18%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
35	DONG Nancy	18%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
36	WARBURTON Eleanor	14%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
37	BASTUNAS Marissa	11%	42%	35%	11%	1%	-	-
38	PRAKASH Rhea	17%	42%	31%	9%	1%	-
39	LIU Madeleine	56%	37%	7%	1%	-	-	-
40	SCHUETZENMEISTER Elena	< 1%	9%	30%	39%	20%	2%	-
41	PARK Gian	18%	39%	31%	11%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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