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Y-10 Men's Foil

Saturday, April 6, 2024 at 11:45 AM

Rockland Community College, Eugene Levy Field House - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	XIAN kevin	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
2	WANG Mendy	-	-	1%	10%	38%	50%
3	SHOU Raymond	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
3	ZHANG Vincent	1%	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%
5	GUGALA Frank	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	11%
6	CAO Joshua	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	15%
7	SONG Enoch	-	6%	24%	39%	26%	5%
8	QIAN Will	1%	11%	32%	38%	17%	1%
9	WU Wallace	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
10	XIA Vincent	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
11	LIN Ziyue	-	1%	9%	26%	37%	23%	4%
12	ZHAO David	1%	7%	25%	37%	25%	6%
13	SHARMA Ari	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
14	AMR HOSSNY Adam	4%	22%	39%	28%	7%
15	MONDESIR Chace	1%	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%
16	HAN Jiaren	-	3%	19%	37%	31%	10%
17	CASCONE Raffaele	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
18	SHEN Lucas	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%
19	HU Michael	1%	9%	30%	39%	19%	2%
20	TARDIFF Owen	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%
21	ZHONG Kingsley	-	5%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%
22	BHOSREKAR Som	25%	45%	25%	5%	-
23	WU Max	8%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
24	WANG George	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	14%
25	YANG Luca	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
26	LI Andrew	2%	15%	37%	34%	12%	1%
27	XU ETHAN	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	12%
28	SHUM Wesley	4%	25%	39%	25%	6%	1%
29	WONG Blayke	4%	21%	36%	27%	10%	2%	-
30	ZHANG Eric	11%	34%	37%	16%	2%
31	FOMIN Dashiell	11%	32%	34%	18%	4%	-
32	CHAE Emmett	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
33	YANG Crescent	25%	43%	25%	7%	1%	-
34	HONG Thomas	4%	25%	40%	25%	6%	-
35	NAYAK Saideep	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-
36	CHONG Cooper	37%	41%	18%	4%	-	-	-
37	LEE Joseph	1%	25%	46%	25%	3%
38	XIA Wenhao	1%	13%	36%	36%	13%	1%
39	WU Connor	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
40	DAVE Neil	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
41	LI Ethan	85%	14%	1%	-	-	-
42	GOLDSTEIN Tate	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	6%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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