Motor City SYC

Y-14 Women's Épée

Saturday, April 6, 2024 at 2:00 PM

UWM Sports Complex - Pontiac, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	XU Sunia (Tai Yang)	-	1%	6%	26%	45%	22%
2	FRANGER Macy	-	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
3	LI Olivia	-	-	2%	14%	43%	41%
3	STERN Savannah	-	1%	9%	32%	43%	15%
5	QI Julieanne	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	40%
6	KROPP Anne	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	18%	3%
7	WANG Cecilia	-	3%	17%	34%	31%	12%	2%
8	CAI Yiyi (Phoebe)	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
9	ANEZIOKORO Zahra	1%	9%	35%	39%	15%	2%
10	ELTERMAN Kate	1%	8%	28%	39%	21%	3%
11	WONG Caitlin	-	-	2%	11%	31%	40%	16%
12	LI Caroline	-	4%	22%	42%	26%	5%
13	DU Andria	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
14	HALE Avery	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
15	TAM Connie	-	3%	22%	46%	25%	4%
16	MA Sophie	-	-	2%	17%	45%	36%
17	OLELE Ifechi	1%	13%	35%	37%	13%	1%
18	HALE Reagan	10%	32%	37%	17%	4%	-
19	CHAN Macie	5%	27%	40%	23%	5%	-
20	SALOUS Sarah	1%	13%	34%	34%	15%	2%	-
21	SCHMITT Harper	-	1%	5%	22%	43%	30%
22	FANG jenna kim	28%	44%	23%	4%	-	-
23	ECONOMAKIS Anthea	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	13%
24	YANG Eleanor	6%	25%	38%	23%	7%	1%	-
25	PAN Yiran	-	3%	21%	39%	28%	8%	1%
26	XU Hua	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
27	LIANG Carina	4%	22%	40%	27%	7%	1%
28	CORNFIELD Emily	2%	17%	36%	31%	12%	2%	-
29	CAI Melody	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%	-
30	YANG Angela	40%	48%	11%	1%	-	-
31	KRAVCHENKO Tatyana	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
32	YU Chloe	8%	32%	40%	16%	2%	-
33	LI Nicole	18%	43%	31%	8%	1%	-
34	TISHKOVA-ROBERTS Daria	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%	-
35	JERDEE Saige	31%	48%	18%	3%	-	-
36	EKSHTUT Leah	3%	19%	36%	29%	11%	2%	-
37	KANE Alexa	1%	9%	28%	38%	20%	3%
38	NISHANTH Krishvi	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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