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Div I-A Men's Foil

Saturday, April 13, 2024 at 9:00 AM

University of Maryland, Reckord Armory - College Park, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ARCHER Kristjan	-	-	-	-	-	5%	95%
2	LEE Aidan	-	-	-	-	2%	23%	76%
3	TANG Albert	-	1%	7%	31%	48%	13%
3	HUANG Dongrong	-	-	-	-	-	11%	88%
5	ZHENG Alan H.	-	-	1%	8%	29%	44%	18%
6	XIE Buster	-	1%	8%	31%	45%	14%	1%
7	LEVY Jacob	-	2%	14%	37%	36%	9%	-
8	DIVENTI Paul W.	-	-	< 1%	5%	34%	60%
9	TIKHAEV Alexander	-	-	1%	7%	29%	50%	13%
10	TAN Christien	-	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
11	SONG Austin	-	1%	14%	46%	33%	6%	-
12	STRAYER Andrew	-	-	1%	9%	41%	39%	10%
13	ZHEN Ethan	-	-	1%	13%	51%	34%	2%
14	ORLOV Dmitriy	-	16%	41%	34%	8%	1%
15	KEE Andrew L.	-	-	-	5%	32%	46%	16%
15	BUERGIN Aidan	-	-	-	-	4%	30%	66%
17	KNIZHNIK David	-	-	-	1%	12%	43%	44%
18	CONVERSE Warren D.	-	24%	45%	26%	4%	-
19	JAUME Andrei	-	-	-	8%	43%	46%	3%
20	SHEPHERD Conner M.	-	-	-	5%	29%	55%	11%
21	TANG August L.	-	-	8%	35%	44%	13%	-
22	JIANG Bowang	1%	20%	38%	29%	10%	2%	-
23	GORDON Jacob	-	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	6%
24	HE Kyle	1%	8%	35%	44%	12%	1%	-
25	SHI Shenzhi	-	-	1%	9%	39%	49%	2%
26	BLACK Zachary	1%	9%	28%	39%	20%	3%	-
27	BHARGAVA Aayush	3%	26%	42%	24%	5%	-	-
28	GRIEB Oliver	2%	18%	47%	29%	4%	-	-
29	WITTIG Jonathon T.	-	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
30	FREDERICK David R.	1%	10%	47%	33%	8%	1%	-
31	ZAIDI Adil	-	4%	38%	47%	10%	1%	-
32	CANDELARIA Armando	26%	51%	21%	3%	-	-	-
33	SCHWARTZ Douglas	-	7%	43%	41%	9%	1%	-
34	XU Dinghui Ryan	2%	20%	42%	29%	7%	-	-
35	BLAM Aaron	19%	42%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
36	BRAVO ORTEGA Estéfano	-	18%	42%	32%	7%	-
37	METZ Mason	7%	29%	39%	21%	4%	-	-
38	BAYER John P.	1%	15%	40%	34%	9%	1%	-
39	SEDGLEY Samuel	25%	61%	14%	1%	-	-	-
40	KRETZER Joseph	86%	13%	1%	-	-	-	-
41	STANSBURY Desmond	32%	59%	8%	-	-	-	-
42	GODIN Willis	55%	40%	5%	-	-	-	-
43	KALAI Joshua	< 1%	3%	17%	38%	33%	8%	1%
44	MISHRA Kartikaye	95%	5%	-	-	-	-
45	CHEN Christopher	18%	40%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
46	NELKA Brenden	73%	24%	3%	-	-	-	-
47	SONI Sumeir	63%	34%	3%	-	-	-	-
48	YELOVICH Alan	43%	44%	11%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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