Fencing Center of Chicago RYC & RJCC

Cadet Men's Épée

Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 11:00 AM

Energy Sport Club - Niles, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KARNAS Karol	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	68%
2	GINZBURG Adam	-	1%	7%	26%	44%	23%
3	FRANGER Max	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	21%
3	MITEV Alexander	-	-	6%	31%	47%	16%
5	WILLIAMS Logan	-	5%	23%	39%	27%	7%
6	LOISEAU Oscar	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	9%
6	DHAL Leon	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	11%
8	ENCISO Matias	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
9	JOBE Connor	-	2%	11%	30%	37%	18%	2%
10	VUILLEMIN Gregoire	-	4%	20%	38%	29%	8%
11	GRAVES Lawson	-	1%	8%	30%	44%	17%
12	ROWLAND Marsden	-	1%	8%	27%	39%	22%	2%
13	ZIEGLER John	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	25%
14	PETROVICH Alexandar	1%	13%	36%	35%	13%	2%
14	HUANG Kenneth	-	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%
16	BAGDONAS Olivier	12%	41%	34%	12%	2%	-
17	BARFORD Giovanni	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	8%	-
18	TU Jinqi	1%	12%	34%	36%	14%	2%
19	BOSS Evan	19%	43%	30%	8%	1%	-
20	HALL Gabriel	6%	28%	42%	20%	4%	-
21	KOTTY William	-	4%	17%	37%	34%	9%
22	MCCORD Jack	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
23	HERDMAN Julian	13%	39%	34%	12%	2%	-
24	HERRERA Xavier	14%	42%	32%	11%	2%	-
25	JEON kaden	41%	43%	14%	2%	-	-
26	LIN ZIJIE	29%	43%	23%	5%	1%	-	-
27	BARNEY JR. Terry	10%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
28	SHAFFER Tyler	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-
29	SMITH Bram	25%	43%	26%	6%	1%	-
30	HURLEY Michael	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
31	LEE Vincent	52%	39%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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