DCFC Youth Epee Challenge

Y-14 Mixed Épée

Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 3:00 PM

DC Fencers Club - Silver Spring, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YANG Gary	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
2	CHO Alex	-	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
3	LEECH Braedan	-	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	17%
3	LEE Benjamin	-	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	3%
5	CHAWLA Aarav	-	1%	5%	18%	35%	31%	11%
6	KONG Brandon	-	1%	14%	51%	33%
7	WEI Sherry	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
8	ADDYSON Aidan	-	3%	22%	43%	28%	4%
9	BANG Dylan	-	1%	8%	27%	40%	21%	4%
10	CHEN Jayden	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	40%
11	OZBAY Alp	1%	11%	34%	38%	14%	2%	-
11	LIN Haley	-	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	17%
13	WRIGHT Madison	1%	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
14	DELONG Joshua	-	3%	19%	42%	31%	5%
15	LEE Anton	-	5%	27%	45%	23%
16	POWELL Horatio	3%	50%	37%	9%	1%	-
17	WOOLF Fredrika	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%	1%
18	GOPU Jyothirvida	-	2%	16%	40%	32%	9%	1%
19	LEE Kate	-	-	1%	11%	38%	39%	11%
19	KONG Ethan	-	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
21	MEMON Insha	41%	44%	14%	1%	-
22	MAXWELL Sheito	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
23	FENG Xinmin	2%	14%	34%	34%	15%	2%	-
24	JAO-DOLAN Elizabeth	10%	34%	38%	16%	2%
25	KELSEY Fabienne	4%	26%	46%	20%	3%	-	-
26	WORMACK Anthony Jr.	1%	13%	37%	36%	12%	1%
27	WU Jiachen	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
28	HALE Bradley	19%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
29	GRIGGS Kaiden	-	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
30	GORDON Hannah	18%	45%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
31	PERERA Chloe	35%	43%	19%	4%	-	-	-
32	MILLER Balthazar	7%	38%	44%	10%	1%
33	MITCHELL Simon	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
34	FONS Amandine	25%	43%	25%	6%	-	-	-
35	MEROLLI Asaka	< 1%	5%	20%	37%	30%	8%	-
36	GENTRY Aiden	< 1%	5%	24%	38%	25%	6%	-
37	PARNELL Erin	77%	22%	2%	-	-	-
38	BLAKE Bianca	16%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
39	TURNER Nathan	9%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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