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2018-19 BFC Youth/Cadet Series 4

E & Under Y-14 Mixed Foil

Sunday, June 23, 2019 at 8:30 AM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	MIALL Steven A.	-	-	4%	23%	46%	27%
2	FU Qihan	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	8%
3	LI Eric	-	1%	13%	64%	22%
3	ZHAI Jeffrey	-	2%	12%	38%	37%	11%
5	BAO Wenyuan	1%	9%	34%	42%	13%
6	QI Steve	11%	32%	36%	18%	4%	< 1%
7	MILLER Aidan A.	-	6%	24%	42%	27%
8	JIN Dennis H.	6%	26%	39%	23%	5%	-
9	XIANG Emma	1%	17%	40%	33%	9%
10	WANG Chloe	-	5%	25%	44%	25%
11	GONG Benjamin	-	1%	8%	31%	42%	19%
12	BAO Andria	6%	27%	38%	23%	6%	1%
13	WANG Mason	1%	19%	43%	30%	6%
14	LI Ayren	2%	19%	40%	31%	8%
15	LICCIARDI Davin	10%	35%	39%	14%	2%	-
16	SHYKA-BROWN Simon	-	8%	34%	43%	14%	1%
17	WOODTHORPE Michael G.	11%	47%	35%	7%	-
18	HOU Wendong	2%	15%	35%	35%	12%
19	ZHANG Mark	1%	11%	42%	41%	6%
20	ABRUZZESE Owen	42%	46%	12%	1%	-
21	XU Bernard	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%
22	FREEDMAN Theodore	9%	34%	40%	16%	1%
23	PAOLINO Audrey	1%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
24	VENKATESH Aditya	11%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
25	TANG Sophia	33%	47%	18%	2%	-
27	PAOLINO Grace	27%	46%	23%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.