Fairfax Challenge Winter RYC & RJCC

Junior Men's Saber

Saturday, December 28, 2019 at 4:00 PM

Owings Mills, MD - Owings Mills, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHOU Kevin	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	48%
2	BENAVRAM Lev C.	-	-	-	4%	30%	66%
3	DANNULL Lukas J.	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
3	JOHNSON Langston C.	-	2%	18%	45%	31%	4%
5	GILMORE Thomas W.	-	1%	12%	41%	39%	7%
6	NI AMEN Zahir K.	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
7	BUKOWSKI Bronson	-	4%	19%	37%	32%	9%
8	BRAR Sanjeet	-	3%	14%	32%	34%	15%	2%
9	HOFFMAN Skyler E.	-	1%	5%	21%	39%	29%	6%
10	REN Richard	-	4%	18%	37%	30%	10%	1%
11	PAN Andrew W.	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	15%
12	FORT David	8%	30%	37%	19%	5%	1%	-
13	KENNEDY Liam A.	1%	13%	33%	35%	16%	3%
14	CRISAFULLI Francesco R.	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-
15	CHANG Eliot A.	-	4%	18%	34%	32%	11%
16	WOODWARD Connor	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
17	JARAMILLO Tobias L.	-	-	1%	9%	28%	41%	21%
18	BANG Hyeonjin	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	18%
19	GREENBAUM Ian L.	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
20	LEONARD Cole	2%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%
21	COX Luis E.	19%	42%	29%	9%	1%	-
22	MOOREHEAD Patrick	5%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
23	ZHOU Brian	3%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
24	KOSURI Harsha	13%	53%	29%	5%	-	-
25	ZHANG Tianran	70%	27%	2%	-	-	-
26	LU Caleb Q.	-	1%	7%	26%	40%	22%	3%
27	ROZENTAL Robert	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
28	WANG Charles	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
29	COSGROVE Connor R.	27%	43%	23%	6%	1%	-
30	CHIN Matthew W.	1%	6%	24%	38%	25%	6%
31	MENTA Varun	4%	25%	39%	25%	7%	1%
32	ZHU Charlie	11%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
33	HYUNGJUN lee	13%	40%	35%	11%	1%	-	-
34	CHEN Leo	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%
35	CHAVES Matthew J.	1%	16%	47%	30%	6%	-
36	HOLDEN Joseph	59%	33%	7%	1%	-	-
37	DESHETLER Scott	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-	-
38	CLYMER Lucas Y.	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	2%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.