Sanctioned - MFA Friday Night Epee (Senior Open)

Senior Mixed Épée

Friday, June 21, 2024 at 7:00 PM

Marin Fencing Academy - San Rafael, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	COHEN Benjamin A.	-	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
2	HSU Hao	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
3	GOLDBERG Artie M.	-	-	5%	24%	41%	25%	4%
3	HUSSAM hussam	-	-	1%	10%	33%	43%	13%
5	NICHOLSON Dimitri E.	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
6	LI Yunji (Rain)	-	1%	7%	33%	40%	17%	2%
7	XU Yanwen	-	7%	41%	39%	12%	1%
8	LAURIMAA Emil	-	7%	26%	39%	23%	5%
9	GREEN Jabreel	-	-	3%	18%	44%	34%
10	CAMPBELL-KRUGER Adam W.	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
10	SWANSON Carl G.	-	1%	12%	34%	39%	14%
12	YUEN Nathan	-	-	6%	25%	39%	24%	5%
13	LIN Andrew	1%	12%	35%	35%	14%	2%	-
14	KIM Ian	3%	17%	37%	33%	9%	1%	-
15	LIN Ashley	-	-	7%	29%	45%	19%
16	BHATT Arjun	3%	21%	41%	28%	6%	-
17	AU Marcus J.	-	-	3%	21%	45%	30%
18	LIANG Jingjing	1%	16%	44%	32%	7%	-
19	BHATT Anisha	-	3%	21%	42%	28%	6%
20	WILLIAMS Brett	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%
21	SALESKY Nicholas M.	-	1%	12%	34%	36%	14%	1%
22	LOUIE Joseph	-	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	-
23	LOMIO Nicholas A.	1%	10%	33%	37%	16%	2%
24	LIU Yichen	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-
25	LIN Shenghai	32%	43%	21%	4%	-	-	-
26	BAUMAN Colin	35%	45%	17%	2%	-	-	-
27	LIN Jason	3%	36%	41%	17%	3%	-	-
28	LI Yunxuan (Joy)	8%	49%	34%	8%	1%	-
29	MCCORMICK Nolan	19%	54%	24%	4%	-	-
30	HUANG Wei Wei	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
31	MCGUIRE Maximilien	8%	34%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
32	CHIEM Karen	3%	19%	37%	29%	10%	2%	-
33	LIPTON Michael D.	-	-	5%	22%	44%	26%	3%
34	LI Sean	53%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
35	DILEEP Roshan	6%	29%	41%	21%	3%	-	-
36	JACKSON Susana	60%	33%	7%	1%	-	-	-
37	BURGSTONE Benjamin	12%	41%	34%	11%	2%	-
38	ZGRAGGEN dale	< 1%	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%	1%
39	PERALTA Christian	66%	32%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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