International Summer Cup 2024

Senior Women's Saber

Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 3:30 PM

International - Troy, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KOUROUSI Anna Kalliopi	-	-	1%	18%	82%
2	MELNYCHUK Yelyzaveta	-	-	-	-	10%	89%
3	GUGALA Hanna	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
3	SUVOROVA Anna	4%	30%	43%	20%	3%
5	KOROTCHENKO Viktoriia	-	-	1%	14%	49%	35%
6	NATHANSON Samantha	-	1%	11%	50%	38%
7	KNOBEL Sophia	-	2%	20%	46%	31%	1%
8	VINOKUR Anita	1%	9%	32%	39%	17%	2%
9	MEDVINSKY Alexandra	-	3%	26%	62%	9%
10	SHTREVENSKY Maria	-	1%	11%	41%	47%
11	CROOKS Riley	7%	30%	41%	20%	2%
12	BERNARD Kathryn	-	4%	21%	43%	29%	3%
13	NIU Jessica	3%	26%	54%	16%	1%
14	PENNER Tabitha	-	6%	31%	43%	19%	1%
15	MAGITSKY Leila	13%	40%	36%	10%	1%
16	KOLHLBERGER Noel	-	8%	33%	45%	14%
17	GENTILE Vittoria	4%	23%	40%	28%	6%
18	ZHU Alina	-	7%	36%	42%	14%	-
19	KALINICHENKO Yekaterina	14%	40%	34%	11%	1%	-
20	MAK Kaitlin	5%	24%	41%	26%	5%
21	SHMULER Fiona	4%	33%	45%	17%	2%
22	NEDOPAKA Kateryna	4%	28%	42%	22%	4%
23	PALMIERI Giuliana	28%	44%	23%	5%	-
23	PROZUMENT Elizabeth	38%	43%	17%	3%	-
25	RIFKIN Lielle	68%	28%	4%	-	-
25	FIGELMAN Maya	52%	40%	7%	-	-
25	GRIMPAVIOTI Eleonora	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
28	GALLAGHER Isabella	12%	54%	29%	5%	-	-
29	ASIMAKOPOULOU Filomila	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
30	SELA Yoon	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-
31	LOZIER Camryn	72%	26%	2%	-	-	-
32	LEIGH Adalene	23%	54%	21%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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