North Texas Roundup SYC/RJCC/Y8

Junior Men's Foil

Saturday, August 31, 2024 at 12:30 PM

Dallas Market Hall - Dallas, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	QIAN Jason H.	-	-	-	-	5%	31%	63%
2	CHUANG Oscar	-	1%	5%	20%	42%	33%
3	SENIC Lucas	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
3	ELKOUSY Zain al Din	-	-	5%	25%	39%	25%	5%
5	LU Kevin	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	22%
6	HAYES Stewart	-	-	6%	25%	39%	24%	5%
7	CHEN Ethan	-	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	16%
8	BOESKIN Nolan	-	6%	27%	40%	22%	4%
9	MEJIA MATTHEW D.	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
10	KIM Brian	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	17%
11	FANG Haoyu	-	3%	21%	40%	29%	7%	-
12	ANDRIC Borna	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
13	RAJ Jay	-	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	16%
14	PARKER Isaiah	-	3%	20%	40%	30%	7%	-
15	GIDDENS James	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%
16	HUA Aaron	1%	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%
17	CHANG Jonathan	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	16%
18	FINLEY Dylan	-	-	1%	11%	35%	43%	9%
19	RODRIGUEZ Tyler	-	1%	7%	28%	40%	21%	2%
20	FOURNET-FAYARD Aldric	-	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
21	BARRETT Austin	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
22	JIN Andy	4%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
23	DOELL Ethan	-	-	4%	19%	39%	31%	6%
24	JOHNSON Chance	-	1%	6%	25%	41%	24%	3%
25	CHENG Logan	1%	8%	28%	39%	21%	4%
26	CLARK Benjamin	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%	-
27	CHANG Eric Jonathan	-	3%	17%	38%	32%	10%	1%
28	CHEN Anson	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
29	YU ZiRun (Kinton)	-	4%	25%	41%	24%	5%	-
30	WARMERDAM Joseph	25%	47%	23%	5%	-	-
31	TEH Tang-Ngu	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
32	FLYNT Hayden	1%	10%	31%	36%	18%	3%	-
33	NUCKLES Caden	7%	39%	38%	14%	2%	-	-
34	MCKEE Calvin	7%	35%	38%	16%	3%	-
35	CHEN Kelton	1%	16%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
36	RODRIGUEZ Alejandro	14%	49%	30%	6%	1%	-	-
37	LEE Junehyuk	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-	-
38	FRANCIS Maximillian	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-	-
39	LAM Kirin	44%	46%	10%	1%	-	-	-
40	SHAW Spencer	3%	23%	45%	23%	5%	1%	-
41	ZHOU Alex	14%	42%	32%	10%	1%	-	-
42	WEI Winston	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-
43	CHENG Mason	35%	46%	17%	2%	-	-
44	CHIANG Aiden	32%	51%	15%	2%	-	-	-
45	FRANCIS Sebastian	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-
46	LIN Evan	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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