Midwest ROC/RJCC

Div I-A Women's Épée

Saturday, September 7, 2024 at 3:00 PM

Canlan Sports Lake Barrington - Barrington, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KUNJAN Lena R.	-	-	-	-	2%	21%	77%
2	BECKMAN Ana	-	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	17%
3	XIONG Angelica	-	-	3%	18%	41%	32%	5%
3	IYER Ishana	-	1%	5%	22%	39%	27%	6%
5	MCGLADE Jasmine	-	-	-	3%	18%	47%	32%
6	SUN Zeyu	-	1%	5%	21%	40%	30%	3%
7	BROWN Amanda	-	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	13%
8	SWENSON Nikita G.	-	-	-	2%	11%	37%	50%
9	SCHMITT Harper	-	4%	15%	30%	32%	16%	2%
10	TIMMONS Sarah J.	-	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
11	WATTANAKIT Anda	-	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	13%
12	MALLAVARPU saanvi	-	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
13	MA Sophie	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
14	PATIL Amulya	-	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
15	PROKOP Jeannine A.	-	-	2%	13%	35%	38%	12%
16	NELSON Grace E.	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	11%	1%
17	SCHLIEP Anna J.	2%	13%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
18	TANG Elaine	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	6%	-
19	SWENSON Alexandra	-	6%	23%	39%	25%	6%	1%
20	BURKHARDT Krista L.	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%	-
21	LI Suri	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	3%	-
22	TANG Ellen	9%	32%	39%	17%	3%	-	-
23	BARANOSKI CHLOE	2%	15%	32%	32%	16%	3%	-
24	CHUANG Ramona	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	4%	-
25	ELTERMAN Kate	3%	19%	38%	29%	9%	1%	-
26	MOHAMED Faisa	2%	18%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-
27	CHAN Macie	19%	39%	30%	10%	2%	-	-
28	MANIANGLUNG Jean	18%	40%	31%	10%	2%	-	-
29	MOHAMED Siham	20%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-	-
30	BARTOSZUK Camilla	5%	30%	40%	20%	5%	1%	-
31	MCKENNA Analise	30%	43%	21%	4%	-	-	-
32	RITTERBUSCH Abigail	64%	31%	5%	-	-	-	-
33	ZEHE Michele A.	14%	38%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
34	DEPAUW Adeline	14%	37%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
35	CHEEVER Katie	8%	34%	37%	17%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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