Midwest ROC/RJCC

Junior Men's Épée

Sunday, September 8, 2024 at 12:00 PM

Canlan Sports Lake Barrington - Barrington, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SILVERS Ari	-	-	1%	7%	34%	59%
2	ZIEGLER John	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
3	KARNAS Karol	-	-	-	3%	27%	70%
3	GRAVES Lawson	-	4%	22%	44%	29%
5	DHAL Leon	-	1%	5%	23%	43%	28%
6	GINZBURG Adam	-	3%	17%	39%	33%	9%
6	ROWLAND Marsden	-	4%	23%	46%	24%	2%
8	BARFORD Giovanni	1%	8%	30%	39%	19%	3%
9	SHOUSHA Hamza	-	5%	25%	41%	25%	4%
10	SIEDOW William	-	2%	12%	34%	38%	14%
11	BOSS Evan	10%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
12	FU Jason	-	1%	8%	31%	42%	18%
13	CURTY Jack	1%	11%	34%	40%	15%
14	SOBESHKEVYCH ROMAN	-	1%	8%	29%	41%	20%
15	HALL Gabriel	11%	41%	35%	11%	1%	-
16	SHOEMAKER Oliver	15%	45%	31%	8%	1%	-
17	SERAFYM Damian	-	1%	9%	37%	45%	8%
18	NOTT Kobi	-	5%	23%	39%	27%	6%
19	COHEN Henry	24%	45%	25%	5%	-	-
20	PATEL Aayan	22%	42%	28%	7%	1%	-
21	SHOUSHA Yassin	4%	24%	42%	24%	5%	-
22	HERRERA Xavier	48%	39%	11%	1%	-
23	PETROVICH Alexandar	1%	13%	37%	35%	12%	1%
24	TIKHOMIROV Theodore	-	1%	6%	27%	43%	23%
25	MCDOWELL Will	-	5%	24%	41%	26%	4%
26	STOKER Elliott	12%	35%	36%	14%	2%	-
27	LIM-SEIWERT Armand	25%	45%	25%	5%	-	-
28	WILLIAMS Logan	4%	25%	43%	24%	4%
29	TASKIRAN Mete	7%	32%	40%	19%	3%
30	BAGDONAS Olivier	23%	45%	27%	5%	-	-
30	GLEN Ethan	27%	45%	23%	5%	-	-
32	HUANG Kenneth	< 1%	5%	22%	39%	27%	6%
33	LEHNER Brian	10%	36%	40%	13%	1%	-
33	DEPAUW Achiel	50%	39%	9%	1%	-	-
35	SMITH Bram	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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