12th Annual Little Musketeers RYC and RJC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 2:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GU Andrew	-	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	31%
2	LUC Cedric	-	-	-	1%	16%	62%	20%
3	GREENSTEIN Viktor	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
3	WANG David	-	-	5%	23%	44%	28%
5	HWANG Hagan	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
6	CHAN Troy	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
7	QI Jeremy	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
8	LI Ryan	-	-	2%	14%	40%	44%
9	KIM Suin	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
10	KIM Junseong	-	1%	6%	26%	45%	22%
11	LEE Jayden	-	4%	16%	33%	32%	13%	1%
12	LVOVSKIY Roman	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%
13	OU Rigel	-	-	4%	19%	45%	32%
14	LIN Ethan	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%	1%
15	LEE Bill King	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	7%
16	HSIEH Sebastian	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	2%
17	SLOAN Ethan	-	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	1%
18	WANG Henrik	-	2%	12%	29%	36%	19%	2%
19	LIU Baichen (Matthew)	8%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
20	HAN Kyle	-	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%	-
21	SU Eric	-	3%	13%	30%	35%	17%	2%
22	CHOI LIAM	1%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
23	DING Orlando	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
24	DENG Richard	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
25	GUO Jonathan	7%	27%	39%	22%	5%	-
26	QI Zach	3%	17%	36%	32%	11%	1%
27	TAN Daniel	1%	8%	26%	35%	23%	6%	-
27	LIU Clarence	4%	36%	40%	17%	3%	-	-
29	HATAMI Arshia	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
30	CHEN Aaron	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%
31	LUO Gavin	10%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
32	WONG Alexander	1%	6%	21%	35%	27%	9%	1%
33	TABANCAY Cole	1%	8%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%
34	KIM Derek	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
35	CHEUNG Evan	6%	27%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
36	ZHANG Hanzhi	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%	-
37	FAN Yuen	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%	-
38	SAHA Aryan	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
39	LIU Paul	16%	36%	31%	14%	3%	-	-
40	YANG Patrick	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
41	WU Kaiden	1%	11%	30%	36%	19%	3%
42	HSIEH Maxwell	25%	42%	25%	6%	1%	-
43	ZHU yinxi	10%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
44	PARK Jayden	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%
45	DESAI Arthav	2%	11%	27%	33%	21%	6%	1%
46	KOTEK Sam	-	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
47	JASPERSON Nolan	7%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
48	STERN Kazuki	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-	-
49	LEI Isaac	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-
50	SAHA Aadi	17%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
51	DUBIN Jake	31%	45%	20%	4%	-	-
52	LOVELL Jackson	39%	41%	17%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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