Windy City Fencing SYC #10 / RCC

Y-12 Women's Épée

Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 2:30 PM

The Athletico Center - Northbrook, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	XU Chenyu	-	-	1%	9%	35%	54%
2	NING Miranda	-	-	5%	21%	43%	30%
3	YAN Ximei (Alicia)	-	1%	8%	29%	43%	19%
3	OLELE Ifechi	-	-	1%	7%	24%	41%	27%
5	CHI Zoe	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
6	LI Anna	-	1%	6%	26%	46%	22%
7	CHEN Allison	3%	27%	44%	22%	4%	-
8	KANE Alexa	-	-	3%	18%	45%	34%
9	ZHANG Jane	-	-	-	5%	23%	43%	28%
10	ARULKUMAR Lashia	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
11	CHOI Arianna	-	-	4%	17%	36%	33%	10%
12	CHEN Julia Z.	-	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%
13	JU Jennifer	2%	13%	31%	35%	17%	2%
14	BOBE Arianna	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
15	YU Chloe	-	1%	10%	31%	42%	17%
16	LI Allison	1%	9%	29%	39%	19%	3%
17	JIANG chenxi	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%
18	FENG Esther	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
19	PEKKER Amina	6%	27%	41%	23%	4%	-
20	MACAL Zoey	12%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-
21	CAI Melody	-	4%	18%	33%	30%	12%	2%
22	HUFF Elizabeth	1%	8%	26%	36%	22%	6%	1%
23	CHO Josephine	23%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
24	MAENG Gloria	-	4%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
25	YOUNG Penelope	1%	12%	34%	37%	14%	2%
26	PEKKER Adel	-	2%	9%	26%	35%	23%	5%
27	LAI Juliet	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
28	DOROSHKEVICH Maria	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
29	NISHANTH Krishvi	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
30	DOMONKOS Mary Alanna	1%	6%	21%	35%	27%	9%	1%
31	GU Ella	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
32	ZHAO Rachel	19%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
33	KWAK Olivia	13%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
34	TRIVULCE Scarlett	1%	14%	38%	34%	12%	1%
35	BRINDAVAN Vyahriti	4%	23%	40%	25%	6%	-
36	HUNER Campbell	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	2%	-
37	NEGRUT Sabina	27%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
38	SCHLIEP Camellia	6%	26%	38%	23%	5%	-
39	KWASNY Natalie	17%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
40	YAO Astrid	61%	32%	6%	1%	-	-
41	VOGL Layla	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
42	YAU Katelyn	13%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
43	ALFARO Gia	< 1%	9%	51%	32%	6%	-
44	HUANG Cynthia	1%	15%	37%	34%	11%	1%
45	WORTENDYKE Evelyn	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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